Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction 10/21/26 NBA Picks Today

The Dallas Mavericks had to endure a grueling, injury-riddled transition with a new front office led by team president Masai Ujiri and head coach Dusty May to hit the reset button on this stumbling franchise. The Mavericks were abysmal last season as they amassed just 26 wins, and you knew it was going to be tough from the start, as the Mavericks didn’t get a single game out of Kyrie Irving.

Cooper Flagg shouldered the extra workload and put together an incredible season to finish with the NBA Rookie of the Year award. The Mavericks decided to get rid of Khris Middleton, Ryan Nembhard, Marvin Bagley III, Dwight Powell, and Klay Thompson while adding Zaccharie Risacher, Santi Aldama, Marcus Sasser, and Jett Howard.

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets are coming into this season with plenty of momentum after their young core stepped up and tallied 44 wins in what was supposed to be a down year. Kevin Durant averaged 26.0 points but has since been traded; Alperen Sengun averaged 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game, while Amen Thompson averaged 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.

The Rockets were busy in the offseason as they moved Kevin Durant and Dorian Finney-Smith while acquiring Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Marcus Smart, and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The favorites have won each of the Mavericks’ last 10 games at Toyota Center.
• The Mavericks have lost each of their last nine games as road underdogs against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs against Southwest Division opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in four of the Mavericks’ last five games.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

• The Rockets have lost each of their last eight season openers.
• The underdogs have won five of the Rockets’ last six games.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five season openers as favorites.
• The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Rockets.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Rockets’ last eight home games against Southwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the Mavericks’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Alperen Sengun ranked 2nd in the league for points in the paint (1008) last season.
• Amen Thompson ranked 1st amongst qualified Guards for rebounds per game (7.8) last season.

Dallas Mavericks Player Facts

• Daniel Gafford was one of only three players to have made 10+ field goals without a miss in a game last season.
• Max Christie ranked 3rd in the Western Conference amongst qualified players for FT% (89.9%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rockets ranked 1st in the league for rebounds per game last season (48.1).
• The Rockets ranked 1st in the league for offensive rebounds per game last season (15.0).
• The Mavericks ranked 30th in the league for opponent field goal attempts per game last season (93.8).
• The Mavericks recorded the longest home losing streak in the NBA last season (14 games).

The Mavericks are still missing some players, with Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, and Caleb Martin all ruled out, while the Rockets are keeping an eye on Steven Adams, who is questionable with a calf strain. The Rockets open as clear favorites at home, but they are working so many new pieces into the rotation, and they are only 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games when favored by 8.5 points or more.

Sure, maybe the Rockets get the comfortable win in front of their home fans, but I just don’t feel that the Mavericks should be such heavy underdogs at the start of the season, especially with Kyrie Irving expected to make his return.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Dallas +8.5