Pelicans vs Nuggets Prediction 10/28/26 NBA Picks Today

The Denver Nuggets have yet to get going this season, and they certainly didn’t look at their best on Monday when they got smashed by the Warriors in a 134-114 loss at home. DeMar DeRozan led the team with 21 points off the bench, Nikola Jokic tallied 19 points with seven rebounds and 11 assists, while Jamal Murray scored 19 points with eight assists.

As a team, the Nuggets shot 50 percent from the field and 10 of 29 from the 3-point line as they got off to a decent start and had the scores tied going into halftime, but their issues on defense were on display again as they leaked 74 points in the second half to trail by as many as 24 points at one stage.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have had a really tough start to the season as they’ve lost their first three games by a combined 10 points, and their latest loss may have hurt the most as they fell 141-135 in overtime to the Nuggets on Saturday. Trey Murphy III led the team with 26 points, six rebounds and four assists on 10 of 17 shooting; Dejounte Murray added 22 points with six assists, while Zion Williamson and Derik Queen each scored 18 points.

As a team, the Pelicans shot 51 percent from the field and 11 of 38 from the 3-point line as they got off to a quick start with 38 points in the first quarter to lead by as many as 23 points, but they couldn’t hold off the Nuggets in the fourth quarter, and it cost them in overtime, where they scored just nine points to allow the Nuggets to slip away.

Why the New Orleans Pelicans will win

• The Pelicans have won seven of their last eight home games against Western Conference opponents.
• The Nuggets have lost four of their last six games as favorites.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games as road favorites.
• The Pelicans have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against Western Conference opponents.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The Nuggets have won each of their last 14 games as road favorites following a home loss.
• The Pelicans have lost each of their last 12 games as underdogs.
• The Pelicans have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games on the first leg of a back-to-back after coming off overtime.
• The Nuggets have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games as road favorites following a home loss.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Pelicans’ last nine home games against Northwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Nuggets’ last five games against Southwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

New Orleans Pelicans Player Facts

• Zion Williamson ranks T4th amongst qualified players for steals per game (2.7) this season.
• Dejounte Murray ranks T5th amongst qualified players for fast break points per game (5.3) this season.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Nikola Jokic has recorded 10+ assists in two consecutive appearances- the longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Jamal Murray is one of only four players in the league to have made 8+ threes in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pelicans rank 30th in the league for opponent field goals made per game this season (45.3).
• The Pelicans have suffered the largest comeback loss when leading through Q3 this season – led by 19 points @ Nuggets on October 24.
• The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (87.7%).
• The Nuggets have recorded the largest comeback win from a Q3 deficit this season – trailed by 19 points vs Pelicans on October 24.

The Nuggets are still missing Spencer Jones, Cameron Johnson, and Julian Strawther, while the Pelicans have ruled out Yves Missi again, but they could have Jordan Poole returning from illness.

We should be in for a great revenge match here as these teams face off for the second time in four nights. The Nuggets got humbled by the Warriors in their last outing, while the Pelicans have just been resting since the last meeting. It’s tempting to take the Nuggets, who will turn things around sooner or later, but the Pelicans will be fully rested and well prepared for this rematch, and I think they’ll pull off the upset at home.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: New Orleans +4.5