Jazz vs Spurs Prediction 10/28/26 NBA Picks Today

The San Antonio Spurs are starting to heat up now as they will be gunning for a third straight victory after making light work of the lowly Kings in a 130-103 home win last night. Victor Wembanyama led the team with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks on 14 of 21 shooting; Julian Champagnie provided the spark off the bench with eight 3-pointers on his way to 26 points, while Devin Vassell tallied 14 points with eight assists.

As a team, the Spurs shot 54 percent from the field and an efficient 17 of 37 from the 3-point line as they swarmed the Kings from the start with 80 points in the first half to take a 26-point lead into halftime, which allowed them to rest their starters early.

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz have won just one of their first four games overall, and they will be hoping to avoid a third straight defeat after getting beaten by the Grizzlies in a 110-105 home loss on Monday. Keyonte George led the team with 26 points and six assists on nine-of-17 shooting, Ace Bailey added 17 points with 10 rebounds and three blocks, while Darryn Peterson chipped in with 14 points, seven rebounds, and four assists.

As a team, the Jazz shot just 41 percent from the field and 10 of 33 from the 3-point line as they struggled to score from the start and managed just 21 points in the first quarter to trail by as many as 16 points, which was a shame because they played great basketball in the fourth quarter to cut the deficit to just one point, but they couldn’t get over the line.

Why the Utah Jazz will win

• The Spurs have lost four of their last six games as favorites.
• The Jazz have won four of their last seven games as underdogs against the Spurs following a loss.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The home team has covered the spread in nine of the Jazz’s last 12 games.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Jazz have lost each of their last 16 games following a home loss.
• The Spurs have won each of their last eight games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Jazz have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games as underdogs against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as road favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Spurs’ last seven road games against Northwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Jazz’s last five night games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Jazz rank 1st in the league for opponent offensive rebounds per game this season (8.8).
• The Jazz have suffered the largest comeback loss when leading through Q1 this season – led by 18 points @ Lakers on October 25.
• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (14.8).
• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (18.0).

The Spurs are still missing Tobias Harris, while the Jazz have ruled out Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander, and Jaren Jackson Jr., and Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are both questionable. The Spurs are playing their second game of a back-to-back set, but they did pull their starters early, and we’re still at the start of the season. The line is hefty for a road team, but with the Jazz still banged up, I will stick with the Spurs getting off to a quick start and rolling their way to a win and cover on the road.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: San Antonio -11.5

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