Cleveland Cavaliers (4-3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (5-2)
November 4, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5; Over/Under: 227.5
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Thunder vs Cavaliers Prediction
The Cavaliers are still missing Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson, while the Thunder have ruled out Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams, with Jaylin Williams upgraded to questionable for this one. The Cavaliers will be kicking themselves after falling short at home on Monday as they had more than enough chances to steal a game against a severely shorthanded Thunder squad. Williams could be returning for the Thunder, which would be a nice boost considering how many injuries they are dealing with, so I am looking at this like the Cavaliers missed their chance.
The Cavaliers couldn’t beat the Thunder on Monday despite forcing the Thunder’s Gilgeous-Alexander to miss 21 of his 35 shots, and I don’t see him having another poor shooting night, not at home. The line is short, so I will stick with the Thunder to rub some salt into the wound with another narrow win and cover at home.
Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been in decent form as they’ve won four of their first seven games, but they will be looking for some revenge in this one after falling just short to the depleted Thunder in a 117-112 home defeat on Monday. Donovan Mitchell led the team with 17 points and 11 assists; Meleek Thomas added 17 points on seven-for-16 shooting, Evan Mobley scored 16 points with seven rebounds and four assists, while Jarrett Allen chipped in with 14 points.
As a team, the Cavaliers shot 44 percent from the field and 18 of 39 from the 3-point line as they got off to a slow start and scored just 18 points in the second quarter to fall behind by 14 points, before they rallied all the way back to tie the score. The game was up for grabs heading into the final minute, but that’s where the Thunder scored the final five points to snatch the game away.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been in great shape as they are now winners of five of their first seven games following their gritty win over the Cavaliers on Monday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 43 points and eight assists, Ajay Mitchell added 20 points on seven-for-16 shooting, while Kenrich Williams chipped in with 12 points, but no other player scored more than 10 points.
As a team, the Thunder shot just 43 percent from the field, 12 of 31 from the 3-point line, and Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 14 of 35 from the field, but the Thunder grabbed a total of 15 offensive rebounds, which was the difference in a game that could’ve gone either way. It was uncanny how many times the Thunder would capitalize on their offensive rebounds after SGA missed a shot.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 18 Wednesday home games.
- The Cavaliers have lost each of their last four games at Paycom Center.
- The Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Cavaliers.
Why the Cleveland Cavaliers will win
- The Cavaliers have won each of their last six games against Western Conference opponents after losing as favorites.
- The Thunder have lost two of their last three games as home favorites against Central Division opponents following a win.
- The Cavaliers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites against Central Division opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Six of the Thunder’s last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Cavaliers’ last six games at Paycom Center have gone OVER the total points line.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks T4th amongst qualified players for points per game (28.4) this season.
- Ajay Mitchell ranks 8th amongst qualified players for FT% (95.5%) this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers Player Facts
- Sam Merrill has recorded six games with 1+ assists and zero turnovers this season – most of any player in the league.
- Jarrett Allen ranks 3rd in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for FG% (63.1%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Thunder rank 30th in the league for assists per game this season (21.1).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for free throw percentage this season (87.9%).
- The Cavaliers rank 30th in the league for opponent field goal attempts per game this season (95.4).
- The Cavaliers have suffered the largest comeback loss from a HT lead this season – led by 24 points @ 76ers on October 22.
