Leo Santa Cruz vs. Gervonta Davis Boxing Picks, Odds, Predictions – 10/31/20

Gervonta Davis and Leo Santa Cruz fight Saturday for the World Boxing Association World Light Title at the Alamodome.

Gervonta Davis enters this fight with a 23-0 record that includes 22 knockouts. This will be Davis’ fourth fight since 2019, and he’s coming off a December win over Yuriorkis Gamboa. Davis is coming off a 12th round knockout where he dropped his opponent three times and was never in danger throughout the bout. However, you would have liked to see Davis pick things up offensively and finish the fight a bit sooner given he was fighting an older, more washed up opponent if we’re being honest. Davis is a 25-year-old southpaw who stands at 5’5” with a 67-inch reach. Davis is an extremely heavy handed boxer with a pressure style that is devastating once he gets comfortable in the ring. With finishes in each of his last 14 fights, it’s quite clear what to expect from Tank. Davis is an aggressive boxer from Baltimore who mixes in combinations well and has fast hands for a bigger guy. Davis is also quite underrated for his defense, as he has solid footwork and terrific head movement that allows him to get in and out rather quickly. Davis is at his best when boxing on the inside and usually looks to close off the ring. This will be Davis’ first career fight in Texas.

Leo Santa Cruz enters this fight with a 37-1-1 record that includes 19 knockouts. Santa Cruz has won 10 of his last 11 fights, and he’s coming off a November win over Miguel Flores. Santa Cruz has now won three straight fights since his loss to Carl Frampton and will be defending his belt for a third straight fight. Santa Cruz is coming off a comfortable decision win, and now each of his last three victories have gone to the judges. Santa Cruz hasn’t had a stoppage in three years since his victory over Chris Avalos. Santa Cruz is 32 years old, stands at 5’7”, has a 69-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Santa Cruz has some of the quicker hands in the sport and is one of the busiest workers, as he throws a ton of punches and is always coming forward, looking to be the aggressor at all times. Santa Cruz has fights on hi resume where he’s thrown over 1,000 punches, which includes his 2016 fight against Kiko Martinez that only lasted five rounds. Santa Cruz simply won’t be outworked in the ring, making it tough for him to lose a fight if it goes to the judges, and his only career loss was a majority decision. While known for his aggressive offense, Santa Cruz is also underrated defensively and does a wonderful job of slipping punches. You almost never see Santa Cruz take a clean shot from his opponent. This will be Santa Cruz’s second career fight in Texas.

Santa Cruz at this price has some value to it, as he has the ability to rack up the points due to him constantly staying busy and he could make things interesting if it went to a decision. And while talented, Davis doesn’t hav the resume of a top tier fighter, as he’s done a lot of cherry picking up to this point. Santa Cruz is easily the more battle tested fighter of the two and that experience makes him dangerous. With all that said, Santa Cruz isn’t the toughest fighter in the world to hit, and Davis has some mean counterpunches and the type of shots that will drop his opponent. There’s a path for Santa Cruz to win this fight, but his aggressive and sometimes reckless style is going to create an opening for Davis at some point that completely changes this fight.

I’ll take Davis here, and I’ll back him by knockout to shave down the price.