Leonardo Baez vs. Jason Moloney – 6/25/20 Boxing Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Jason Moloney and Leonardo Baez fight Thursday in a boxing contest at the MGM Grand.

Jason Moloney enters this fight with a 20-1 record that includes 17 knockouts. Moloney has won five of his last six fights, and he’s coming off a November win over Dixon Flores. Moloney is coming off an impressive second round knockout, and he’s boxed just five rounds in each of his last two fights. Moloney’s only career loss was a competitive split decision against Emmanuel Rodriguez back in 2018. Moloney is a 29-year-old Australian who stands at 5’5” and has an orthodox stance. Moloney is a smooth boxer who works his jab well and does some of his best work counterpunching and putting together combinations from the inside. Moloney likes to cut the ring off on his opponent and land hard shots to the body, and he has a nasty uppercut as well. With good head movement and impressive pop for this division, Moloney is easily one of the best boxers pound for pound from Australia at the moment. This will be Moloney’s second career fight in the United States.

Leonardo Baez enters this fight with a 18-2 record that includes nine knockouts. Baez has won each of his last six fights, and he’s coming off a February win over Moises Flores. Baez is coming off a one-sided decision victory and has now won six straight fights since his 2018 loss to Alfredo Mejia Vargas. This will be Baez’s fourth fight since July of last year. Baez is a 24-year-old Mexican who stands at 5’9”, has a 68-inch reach and an orthodox stance. Baez doesn’t have a lot of film available out there, but judging from his last fight, he’s an aggressive fighter who works the body relentlessly and puts a lot into his shots despite not having overwhelming knockout success. Baez swings for the fences a lot, and while it does leave himself open for counters, he can hurt his opponent when landed enough. Baez also has some toughness to him, as he took some shots in his last bout and stayed in the pocket without flinching. This will be Baez’s first career fight in Las Vegas.

Moloney was expected to fight Oscar Negrete in this spot, but a detached retina canceled those plans, which means Baez is taking this fight on short notice. Good luck. As if not a proper camp wasn’t enough, Baez is fighting somebody who is far more polished offensively and defensively, but Moloney has the power edge as well. Also, judging from his last bout, Baez is a little too aggressive for top tier fighters, leaving himself exposed way too much and swinging for the fences that leave openings for nasty counters. There’s just not much Baez can do with Moloney and this has the ability to get ugly.

Give me Moloney by knockout.