Troy vs Arkansas-Little Rock 3/5/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 12-seed Little Rock Trojans & 4-seed Troy Trojans will square off at the Pensacola Bay Center this Saturday afternoon in the Quarterfinals of the Hercules Tires Sun Belt Championship.

The 12-seed Little Rock Trojans improved to 9-18 on the season after upsetting the 5-seed South Alabama Jaguars, 75-71, this past Thursday. Little Rock was outstanding on the offensive end against South Alabama and was able to hold off the Jaguars for the victory after a Jordan Jefferson three-pointer gave Little Rock a 69-66 lead with 4:01 left in regulation. Little Rock shot 48.9% from the field & 58.3% from beyond the arc while allowing South Alabama to shoot 47.8% from the field & 30.8% from beyond the arc. Leading the way for the Trojans was Jordan Jefferson who had 24 points, 2 rebounds, & 1 assist.

On the season, Little Rock is averaging 66.9 ppg on 42.0% shooting from the field. The Trojans are averaging 7.1 three-pointers per game on 33.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Little Rock has been led by Nikola Maric (12.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.4 apg), Isaiah Palermo (11.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.3 spg), Myron Gardner (10.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.5 apg), & Jordan Jefferson (8.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 spg).

Defensively, Little Rock is allowing their opponents to average 73.3 ppg on 47.3% shooting from the field. The Trojans have a rebound margin of -3.8 and a turnover margin of 0.6.

The Troy Trojans finished their regular season with an overall record of 19-10 and earned the 4-seed in the Hercules Tires Sun Belt Championship after finishing conference play with a 10-6 record. Troy was led by their defense which ranks 60^th in scoring defense & 61^st in defensive FG%, however, the Trojans did struggle a bit on the offensive end as they come into this matchup ranked just 217^th in scoring offense & 254^th in FG%. Troy went 9-4 in their non-conference schedule with their most impressive wins coming against Jacksonville State & Florida Atlantic. Troy was solid in Sun Belt play this season, which included road wins against Texas State & Appalachian State, however, the Trojans do come into this conference championship losing 3 of their last 5 games.

On the season, Troy is averaging 69.6 ppg on 42.7% shooting from the field. The Trojans are averaging 7.5 three-pointers per game on 32.7% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Troy has been led by Efe Odigie (11.6 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.3 apg), Duke Deen (9.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.0 spg), Duke Miles (8.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.4 spg), & Zay Williams (8.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.0 apg).

Defensively, Troy is holding their opponents to an average of 65.2 ppg no 41.2% shooting from the field. The Trojans have a rebound margin of 4.0 and a turnover margin of -0.2.

Little Rock is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, however, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. Troy. The Trojans are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games, however, are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games vs. Sun Belt opponents.

Little Rock was able defeat to Troy in the only matchup between the two teams this season as Little Rock defeated Troy by a 66-62 margin on the road in mid-February.

Troy has had a great season and certainly has the talent to make a run to win it all, however, Little Rock seems to always give Troy trouble as they did in their upset of Troy earlier this season. Little Rock has struggled statistically this season, however, has picked up some solid wins this season and as I was impressed with how Troy was offensively against a good South Alabama defense, I think Little Rock makes this one a competitive game and covers with the points. Good Luck!