Virginia vs North Carolina 1/10/23 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Virginia Cavaliers meet in college basketball action from the John Paul Jones Arena on Tuesday night.

The North Carolina Tar Heels will look to build on back-to-back wins after an 81-64 win over Notre Dame last time out. Armando Bacot has 18.8 PPG and 11.2 RPG to lead the Tar Heels in scoring and on the glass, averaging a double-double per game while Caleb Love has 16.9 PPG with 3.3 APG and 4 RPG. R.J. Davis has 16.4 PPG with 5.3 RPG and a team-high 3.4 APG while Pete Nance has 10.9 PPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for North Carolina up to this point in the season. Leaky Black also has 7.3 PPG and 6.1 RPG for the Tar Heels this season. As a team, North Carolina is averaging 81.4 PPG on 46.2% shooting from the field, 31.9% from behind the arc and 73.5% from the foul line this season.

The Virginia Cavaliers will try to build on their 73-66 win over Syracuse last time out. Kihei Clark has a team-high 11.4 PPG and 6.3 APG to lead Virginia in scoring and assists up to this point in the season while Jayden Gardner has 11.3 PPG and a team-high 5.3 RPG. Armaan Franklin has 11.3 PPG with 3.7 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Virginia so far this year. As a team, Virginia is averaging 70 PPG on 45.8% shooting from the field, 38% from three and 70.7a% from the foul line this season.

North Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 while the over is 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. Virginia is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games while the under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.

I get the case to be made either way, but I’m leaning towards Virginia in this one. The Tar Heels still have massive issues defensively, and while Virginia’s been brutal ATS this season, a lot of it has to do with a defense-first Virginia team being asked to lay too many points or are an underdog in spots where it’s warranted against teams like Houston. I just don’t see North Carolina being able to make up for their shortcomings with the offense against this Cavalier defense. I think Virginia gets the win and cover in this one so I’ll lay it and play it with Virginia here.