Auburn vs Alabama State Prediction 3/20/25 College Basketball Picks Today
Alabama State (20-15) vs. Auburn (28-5)
March 20, 2025 2:50 pm EDT
The Line: Auburn -32.5; Over/Under: 149.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate an Auburn Tigers vs Alabama State Hornets Prediction for this College Basketball March Madness game on Thursday, March 20th at Rupp Arena. Let’s take a look at an Alabama State vs Auburn pick.
The winner of this game will face off against the winner of Louisville and Creighton.
What Has Happened to Auburn?
Auburn is still one of the best teams in all of college basketball, but they have really limped into the NCAA tournament. Auburn has lost three of the last four games, with the only win coming two games ago against Ole Miss. In the last game against Tennessee, Auburn only scored 65 points, losing by five points. At halftime, they were up by a point, but in the second half, they gave up 38 points, which was the difference. Johni Broome has been a mismatch all season, and he put up 23 points, seven rebounds, and one assist.
Auburn has a 28-5 overall record, and they really need to use this game as a tune-up so they aren’t knocked out against a very good team in either Louisville or Creighton. Auburn wants to get up and down, averaging 83.8 points, while their defense is giving up 69.6 points per game. In this game, they will need the offense to put on a show here to try to run away with it early. Johni Broome is averaging 18.9 points while shooting 51.3 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from deep.
What a Thriller for Alabama State
Alabama State is one of eight teams that has already played a game already this tournament, and they had the most exciting win of the four games. Alabama State faced off against St. Francis on Tuesday, and they hit a Hail Mary pass and shot to secure the two-point victory. At halftime, they were down 39-34, but in the second half, they fought back, and they ended up on top 70-68. Alabama State was outshot 50 percent to 42.9 percent from the field, but the shots late ended up being the difference. Amarr Knox had a strong game, putting up 16 points. Three different players put up at least 10 points.
Alabama State has a 16-18 overall record, and it had to go on quite the run to even make the NCAA Tournament. Alabama State is averaging 73.3 points, while its defense is giving up 72.1 points per game. They like to push the pace, but their defense has sometimes been a major issue. If they want to succeed here, the defense will need to find a way to be a lot better. Knox has been the top player for Alabama State, averaging 14.4 points while shooting 40 percent from the field.
Why the Auburn Tigers will win
- Auburn has won each of its last 18 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Alabama State has lost each of its last 10 Thursday games against non-conference opponents.
- Auburn has won the first half in 19 of its last 20 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Alabama State Hornets will win
- Alabama State has won each of its last seven games.
- Auburn has lost three of its last four games.
Total Points Facts
- Eleven of Alabama State’s last 12 day games have produced a total of 147 or fewer points.
- Seven of Auburn’s last eight day games against non-conference opponents have produced a total of 152+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for blocks per game this season (6.4).
- Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (124.0).
- Alabama State ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for turnover percentage this season (11.4%).
- Alabama State ranks T6th among Division 1 teams for turnovers per game this season (9.2).
Auburn vs Alabama State Prediction
Is Auburn going to win this game? Yeah, they probably will, but this is way too many points. Auburn has not been as good as of late, and I am not sold on this defense being that good. Alabama State is averaging 73.3 points per game, and they are going to run up the score again here. Auburn is also going to run up the score, but it’s not going to be enough to win this game in blowout fashion. Alabama State will keep it within 25 points. Back Alabama State to cover the spread.
