California vs SMU Prediction 2/26/25 College Basketball Picks Today

The SMU Mustangs and the Cal Golden Bears meet Wednesday in college basketball action from the Haas Pavilion. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an SMU vs. Cal prediction.

Matchup History

These two teams last met on January 29^th, 2025, and ended up with a 76-65 win for SMU at home. The win made it two wins in two matchups between these two teams.

SMU Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to bounce back from a 79-69 loss at the hands of Clemson last time out to fall to 20-7 on the year. After this game, SMU will head on the road for a game against Stanford.

Mustangs Looking For Some Consistency

Boopie Miller leads the Mustangs in scoring and assists with 13.4 PPG and 5.7 APG along with 3.1 RPG while Chuck Harris has 12.6 PPG and Matt Cross has 12 PPG with a team-high 8.2 RPG to lead the Mustangs on the glass up to this point in the year. B.J. Edwards has 10.3 PPG with 4.6 RPG and 3.8 APG along with 2.3 SPG. Samet Yigitoglu has 10.8 PPG with 6.5 RPG as well on the year. Karlo Oquendo has 10.6 PPG with 3 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for SMU so far this season. Yohan Traore has 6.8 PPG with 3.6 RPG. As a team, SMU is averaging 82.2 PPG on 48.1% shooting from the field, 38% from three, and 73.2% from the foul line this season.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• California has lost each of its last four games.

Cal Recap

The Cal Golden Bears come into this game looking to bounce back from a 66-61 loss at the hands of Stanford last time out to fall to 12-15 on the year. After this game, Cal will welcome Boston College to town.

Golden Bears Lose 4^th In A Row

Andrej Stojakovic has a team-high 17.6 PPG with 4.6 RPG while Jovan Blacksher Jr. has 10.1 PPG with 2.3 RPG and a team-high 2.4 APG to lead the Golden Bears in assists. Jeremiah Wilkinson has 14.6 PPG while BJ Omot has 10.8 PPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Cal so far this season. Mady Sissoko leads Cal on the glass with a team-high 7.5 RPG and Rytis Petraitis has 8.1 PPG with 5.6 RPG as well on the year. D.J. Campbell has 7.4 PPG with 2.2 RPG while Joshua Ola-Joseph has 7.2 PPG with 3.8 RPG as well this season. As a team, Cal is averaging 74.1 PPG on 42% shooting from the field, 32.3% from three-point range, and 75.1% from the foul line this season.

Why the California Golden Bears will win

• California has won each of its last seven Wednesday games at Haas Pavilion.

Total Points Facts

• Eleven of California’s last 12 night games have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.
• Six of SMU’s last eight games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 148 or fewer points.

SMU vs. Cal Prediction

I’m on SMU in this game. I know the line feels a bit funky with SMU being such a short favorite, but I think it’s just because the ACC has been one of the more volatile conferences outside of the top-tier teams this season. At its core, Cal is one of the least effective offensive units in the conference this season with some of the worst shooting numbers from the floor, while SMU has a fast-paced offense that’s been able to beat a lot of teams this season. SMU hasn’t necessarily been challenged much, but it’s not like Cal is some imposing beast in this game. Give me SMU on the road here.