SMU vs Louisville Prediction 3/11/26 College Basketball Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate an SMU vs Louisville Prediction for this ACC Tournament 2^nd round matchup on Wednesday, March 11^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this college basketball matchup.

Louisville Cardinals Preview

The Louisville Cardinals have a 22-9 overall record and an 11-7 record in the ACC conference. They are coming off a 92-89 road win against Miami and their previous three games were a 77-62 home win against Syracuse, an 80-75 road loss against Clemson and a 77-74 road loss against North Carolina.

Offensively, Louisville averages 85.9 points per game, while allowing 72.5 points per game defensively. The Cardinals shoot with 47% from the field and grab 38.7 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.4 assists per game. They average 3.3 blocks per game and 7 steals per game defensively.

Ryan Conwell leads Louisville in scoring, with an average of 18.7 points per game, while shooting with 40.8% from the field and 85.2% from the free throw line. Sananda Fru is the team’s leading rebounder with 6.2 per game. Aly Khalifa leads the team in assists with 2.7 per game.

SMU Mustangs Preview

The SMU Mustangs have a 20-12 overall record and an 8-10 record in the ACC conference. They are coming off an 86-69 home win against Syracuse and their previous three games were a 91-78 road loss against Florida State, a 77-69 home loss against Miami and a 95-75 road loss against Stanford.

Offensively, SMU averages 85 points per game, while allowing 78.1 points per game defensively. The Mustangs shoot with 49% from the field and grab 37.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.2 assists per game. They average 3.6 blocks per game and 7.2 steals per game defensively.

Boopie Miller leads SMU in scoring, with an average of 19.5 points per game, while shooting with 48% from the field and 87.1% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 6.5 assists. Samet Yigitoglu is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.9 per game.

SMU Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends: March 11, 2026

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• SMU has lost 16 of its last 18 games against AP-ranked opponents.
• Louisville has won 15 of its last 17 games when playing with a rest advantage.
• SMU has lost the first half in each of its last five games against AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• Louisville has lost five of its last six Conference Tournament day games.
• SMU has won five of its last six day games played at neutral venues.
• Louisville has lost the first half in five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.

Total Points Facts

• Fourteen of Louisville’s last 15 games against the Atlantic Coast Conference at neutral venues have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.
• Thirty-three of SMU’s last 37 games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 158 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Louisville ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (11.9).
• Louisville ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (32.7).
• SMU ranks 360th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (29.0).
• SMU ranks 359th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (10.0).

SMU vs Louisville Prediction

In this SMU vs Louisville Prediction, Louisville is coming as -8.5 favorites. NC State has been the better team this season but are just 3-3 in their last 6 games and 2-4 against the spread. SMU has not been playing much better either, as they are 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in their last 5 games. Both teams split wins in their two regular season meetings and have almost identical offenses this season, so in what looks like a close game on paper I like the value with the underdog. Take SMU and get the +8.5 points in this one.