Michigan State vs USC Prediction 1/5/26 College Basketball Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Michigan State vs USC prediction for this College Basketball game on Monday, January 5th at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Michigan. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Basketball matchup.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans are 12-2 (2-1) this season after they lost to Nebraska by a score of 58-56 in their last game. Michigan State was tied at 33 at halftime, but they only scored 23 points in the second half and missed two free throws with one second left, which would have tied the game. The Spartans shot 34% from the field, 36% on three pointers, and 80% on free throws in the game. Jaxon Kohler led MSU with 19 points and 11 rebounds, while Jeremy Fears Jr added 14 points and seven assists in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Michigan State defeated Cornell by a score of 114-97 and Oakland by a score of 79-70. The Spartans have scored 79.0 points per game with 43.0 rebounds and 19.6 assists per game, while they have allowed 65.4 points against per game this season. Jaxon Kohler is averaging 14.1 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, while Jeremy Fears Jr is averaging 11.7 points and 9.1 assists per game for the Spartans. Michigan State is shooting 46.1% from the field, 73.4% on free throws, and 36.7% on three pointers this season. 

USC Trojans Betting Preview

The USC Trojans are 12-2 (1-2) this year after they lost to Michigan by a score of 96-66 in their last game. USC trailed 49-31 at halftime and allowed 47 points in the second half in the blowout loss. The Trojans shot 34% from the field, 22% on three pointers, and 64% on free throws in the game. Jaden Brownell led USC with 16 points and six rebounds, while Ezra Ausar added 15 points and six rebounds in the loss. 

Prior to that game, USC defeated a non-D1 team by a score of 102-63 and UTSA by a score of 97-70. The Trojans have scored 87.7 points per game with 37.9 rebounds and 16.4 assists per game, while they have allowed 76.8 points against per game this season. Chad Baker-Mazara is averaging 20.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, while Ezra Ausar is averaging 16.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game for the Trojans. USC is shooting 48.4% from the field, 72.8% on free throws, and 35.3% on three pointers this year. 

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won 17 of its last 18 January home games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
• USC has lost nine of its last 10 night games against AP-ranked opponents.
• Michigan State has won the first half in each of its last six games at Jack Breslin Student Events Center.

Why the USC Trojans will win

• Michigan State has lost each of its last four games as a top-10 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• USC has won 12 of its last 14 games.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in 12 of its last 15 night games against AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last 13 games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 151 or fewer points.
• Each of USC’s last six night games have produced a total of 158+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (59.5%).
• Michigan State ranks T8th among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (29.3).
• USC ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for free throws made per game this season (22.8).
• USC ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for free throw attempts per game this season (31.3).

Michigan State vs USC Prediction 

USC comes into this matchup after a blowout loss to Michigan on Friday night, but they have had a solid start to the season. The Trojans are shooting 48% from the field and they have scored at least 94 points in three of their last five games. Michigan State is coming off of a close loss to Nebraska in their last game and they scored just 56 points in that defeat. The Spartans are shooting 46% from the field and while they have strong defensive numbers, they haven’t been great defensively in their last three home games. I think USC’s offense can do enough to stick around in this game, so I will take the Trojans with the points.