Baylor (17-12) vs. TCU (16-13)
March 4, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: TCU +3.5; Over/Under:
(Get latest betting odds)
The Baylor Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs meet Tuesday in college basketball action from Schollmaier Arena. Here’s a TCU vs Baylor prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best TCU vs Baylor pick.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Baylor was looking pretty good in the record column by mid-January, but since then the team has struggled amid some tough matchups. The Bears went 11-4 over their first 15 games, taking wins over Arkansas, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, St. John’s, New Orleans, Abilene Christian, Norfolk State, Arlington Baptist, Utah, Cincinnati and Arizona State. A 5-5 run came next with wins over Kansas State, Utah, Kansas, UCF, and West Virginia amid losses to Arizona, TCU, BYU, Texas Tech and Houston. The next three were losses to Arizona, Colorado, and Cincinnati though, leaving the Bears with a 16-12 record through the first 28 games.
In their Saturday matchup with Oklahoma State, the Bears held a slim halftime lead 26-24. Baylor woke up in the second half, playing better on a 45-37 run on the way to a 71-61 victory in the end. Leading the team in scoring was Jeremy Roach, who came off the bench for 21 points with four rebounds and three assists in 32 minutes of work. Norchad Omier managed to double up with 10 points, 13 rebounds, and two steals, while Robert Wright added 16 points with four rebounds and two assists.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
Over on the Frogs’ side, they’ve had a pretty choppy season so far as well, but they’ve been able to keep their heads above the .500 mark overall. TCU kicked things off on a 10-7 run, beating Florida A&M, Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, Alcorn State, Xavier, South Alabama, Montana State, Kansas State, BYU, and Baylor in that time. After losses to Kansas, UCF, and Texas Tech the Frogs hit a 5-1 run with a loss to Iowa State mixed among wins versus Colorado, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and Texas Tech. The next two games were losses to Cincinnati and West Virginia, giving TCU a 15-13 record across 28 outings.
Matched up against UCF this past weekend, the Frogs jumped out to a comfortable halftime lead 49-30. TCU was outscored from there 48-40 but held on for the 89-78 win in the end. Tops in scoring was Vasean Allette with 17 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds. Ernest Udeh managed to double up with 16 points, 11 boards, and two blocks, while David Punch had 14 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks. Tops off the bench was Micah Robinson on 12 points with five rebounds in 14 minutes of action.
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- TCU has won 20 of its last 21 night games at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Baylor has lost each of its last five road games.
- Baylor has lost the first half in seven of its last eight night games against the Big 12 Conference.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- The road team has won seven of the last eight games between Baylor and TCU.
- Baylor has won the first half in five of its last six games against TCU.
TCU vs Baylor Prediction
I’ll lean toward TCU in this one. The Frogs did a pretty good job against a middling UCF team in their last outing, shooting 47.8 percent from the field with a 49-42 rebounding edge. TCU could have been better from the line (17-of-28 for 60.7 percent) but holding the Knights to 37.5 percent on the other side helped make up for it. The Frogs’ 89 points were their highest total since posting 105 on Florida A&M in the opener, a welcome sight after just 118 combined points in the previous pair (both losses).
Back on January 19 when these teams last met, TCU took a 74-71 road victory in a close contest. The Frogs came back from an early deficit in that one, eventually shooting 50.9 percent from the field with a 41-25 rebounding advantage. TCU nearly gave the game away with turnovers, however, notching 17 for 21 Bears points. The Frogs are going to need to replicate their strong performance on the boards—and keep the mistakes to a minimum—in this home rematch, but I think TCU has a good shot at powering one out here. Should be a fun matchup to watch regardless.
