Auburn vs New Mexico State Prediction Football Picks 11-18-23
Auburn Tigers (6-4) vs New Mexico State Aggies (8-3)
2023-11-18 16:00:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Auburn Tigers -23.5 -- Over/Under: 48.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The New Mexico State Aggies and the Auburn Tigers meet in college football action from Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
New Mexico State Wins 6th Straight
The New Mexico State Aggies come into this one looking to build on a 6th straight win in the form of a 38-29 win over Western Kentucky last time out. Diego Pavia has thrown for 2,257 yards, 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 59.7% passing while also rushing for a team-high 703 yards and 5 touchdowns. Monte Watkins has 531 rushing yards and Star Thomas has 515 rushing yards as well for the Aggies on the year. Jonathan Brady leads NMSU’s receiving group with 29 receptions for 489 yards while Trent Hudson has 351 receiving yards and a team-high 7 touchdowns. Eli Stowers and Chris Bellamy each have 200+ receiving yards and another four Aggies have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Keyshaun Elliott has a team-high 78 total tackles while Buddha Peleti leads the Aggies with 4.5 sacks this season.
New Mexico State Aggies Team Facts
- New Mexico State has won each of its last six games.
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last eight games.
- New Mexico State has lost the first half in each of its last seven games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
- Each of New Mexico State’s last five November road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Auburn Routs Arkansas
The Auburn Tigers come into this one looking to build on their 3rd straight win following a 48-10 rout of Arkansas to clinch bowl eligibility. Payton Thorne has thrown for 1,269 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 63.9% passing while Jarquez Hunter has a team-high 636 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns this season. Jay Fair leads Auburn’s receivers with 28 grabs for 284 yards and 2 scores while Rivaldo Fairweather has 27 grabs for 277 yards and 3 scores this season. On defense, Eugene Asante has a team-high 67 total tackles as well as 4.5 sacks while Marcus Harris also has 4.5 sacks this season. Jaylin Simpson also leads Auburn’s defense with 4 interceptions this season.
Auburn Tigers Team Facts
- Auburn has won 20 of its last 21 games against non-conference opponents at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
- Auburn has covered the spread in each of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Auburn has won the first quarter in 26 of its last 33 games against non-conference opponents at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
- Auburn has won the first half in 31 of its last 37 games against non-conference opponents at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
- Eight of Auburn’s last 10 November home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Auburn rank T32nd among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (20.5).
- New Mexico State rank 37th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (20.8).
Chris’ Pick
I was initially on New Mexico State and the points but over the course of the week, I’ve shifted towards Auburn. The Tigers actually step up and step on lesser opponents the week before the Iron Bowl, and New Mexico State will likely be playing a lot of backups here with the Aggies locked into the Conference USA championship game and not wanting to risk further injury to a lot of key pieces, like Diego Pavia who is questionable with a hamstring issue. His mobility is key to NMSU’s offense and I think the Aggies just take a week off here. Give me Auburn in a beatdown.