Boise State vs UNLV Prediction Football Picks Today 12/5/25

The Boise State Broncos and the UNLV Rebels meet in Mountain West Championship college football action from Albertsons Stadium on Friday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boise State vs UNLV Prediction.

Boise State Broncos Recap

The Boise State Broncos come into this game after finishing the regular season at 8-4 after a 25-24 win over Utah State to close out the regular season. 

Broncos Looking For Third Straight MW Title

Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,994 yards, 15 touchdowns and 7 INTs on 59.6% passing while Max Cutforth has thrown for 857 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 INTs on 57.1% passing. Dylan Riley leads the Broncos on the ground with 1,016 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns while Sire Gaines has 731 rushing yards and 7 TDs and Malik Sherrod has 395 rushing yards with 4 TDs. Latrell Caples leads Boise State’s receiving group with 43 grabs for 515 yards and 3 TDs while Chris Marshall has 467 receiving yards with 2 TDs and Ben Ford has 325 receiving yards with 5 TDs. Matt Lauter has 286 receiving yards and another three Broncos have 200+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Ty Benefield has a team-high 90 total tackles along with a pair of interceptions while A’Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby each have a team-high 4 interceptions and Braxton Fely has a team-high 5.5 sacks. As a unit, Boise State has combined for 21 sacks and 14 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won 17 of its last 18 games at Albertsons Stadium.
• UNLV has lost four of its last five games against teams from Idaho.
• Boise State has covered the spread in each of its last five games against UNLV.
• UNLV has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against teams from Idaho.

UNLV Rebels Recap

The UNLV Rebels come into this game with a record of 10-2 after picking up a 42-17 win over Nevada to close out the regular season.

Rebels Looking For First MW Title

Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 3,020 yards, 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 68.2% passing while also rushing for 556 yards and 8 touchdowns. Jai’Den Thomas has a team-high 944 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while Keyvone Lee has 377 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Jaylon Glover also has 379 rushing yards as well this season. Jaden Bradley leads UNLV in receiving with 51 grabs for 834 yards and 4 touchdowns while Troy Omeire has 27 catches for 472 yards and 4 touchdowns. Daejon Reynolds also has 431 receiving yards and 5 TDs as well on the year. On defense, Marsel McDuffie has a team-high 94 total tackles along with a pair of interceptions while Aamaris Brown has 3.5 sacks and a team-high 4 interceptions. Tunmise Adeleye also has a team-high 6 sacks as well this season. As a unit, UNLV’s defense has combined for 28 sacks and 13 interceptions so far this season.

Why the UNLV Rebels will win

• UNLV has won 13 of its last 14 road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• UNLV has covered the spread in six of its last seven road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six December games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Boise State’s last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of UNLV’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Boise State vs UNLV Prediction

I’m on the over in this game. I get the case to be made for either side, but we saw these two lock up earlier this season in a 56-31 win for Boise State. Furthermore, I can’t help but feel like we’re going to see points in this game as well. These are two electric offenses and Boise hasn’t skipped a beat much switching to Cutforth at QB, as the run game has stepped it up and should have a day against a shaky UNLV defense. However, I also expect the Rebels to get something going here too. Give me the over.