Florida State Seminoles (1-5) vs. Duke Blue Devils (5-1)
October 18, 2024 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Duke Blue Devils -3 / Florida State Seminoles +3; Over/Under: +42.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Florida State Seminoles and the Duke Blue Devils will meet Friday in college football action from Wallace Wade Stadium. Here’s a Duke vs Florida State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Duke vs Florida State pick.
Florida State Betting Preview
The Seminoles got off to a rocky start this year, losing to Georgia Tech, Boston College, and Memphis in their first three outings. Florida State was able to power out a 14-9 win over California but then got blown out by SMU 42-16 the next weekend.
In their latest matchup versus Clemson, Florida State notched another loss. The Seminoles were down 23-7 by the break and limped to a 29-13 result. QB Brock Glenn finished with 228 yards, two scores, and a pick. Landen Thomas caught seven balls for 80 yards.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Over on the Duke side, they kicked off their season on a nice run. The Blue Devils dispatched Elon 26-3 in the opener, then beat Northwestern in OT 26-20 and UConn 26-21. Games four and five were both wins as well: 45-17 over Middle Tennessee and 21-20 against North Carolina.
Duke’s winning streak came to a halt back on October 5 in their latest outing. The Devils held a 14-10 lead going into the fourth quarter then gave up 14 unanswered points in a 24-14 result. QB Maalik Murphy posted 205 yards with two scores and an interception in the losing effort.
Why the Duke Blue Devils will win
- Duke has won each of its last seven home games against conference opponents.
- Florida State has lost eight of its last 10 road games in October.
- Duke has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games against conference opponents at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium.
- Florida State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last nine October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Why the Florida State Seminoles will win
- Florida State has won each of its last four October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Duke has lost 22 of its last 29 games in October.
- Florida State has covered the spread in five of its last six games in October.
Total Points Facts
- Five of Florida State’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Duke’s last three games at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
Duke vs Florida State Prediction
I’ll lean toward Duke. The Blue Devils fizzled out in the fourth quarter of their loss to Georgia Tech, ultimately gaining 279 yards (205 passing), 15 first downs, and a rough 3-of-11 on third-down tries. Duke’s defense gave up 412 total yards (245 rushing) and was on the field for 39:27 of game time.
As for Florida State, they gave up 500 total yards (265 rushing) and 28 first downs in the Clemson loss. The Seminoles mustered just 250 yards (22 rushing) on the other side. Duke’s defense should be more permissive to the run, but I don’t think Florida State will keep a cover pace here.
