The Troy Trojans and the Duke Blue Devils meet in college football action from Protective Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Who finishes the year with a win in the Birmingham Bowl? Let’s dive in and find out with our Troy vs. Duke Prediction.

Troy Team Preview

The Troy Trojans come into this bowl game as the Sun Belt champions following a 49-23 win over App State in the conference championship game. Gunnar Watson has thrown for 3,339 yards, 27 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 61.3% passing while Kimani Vidal has 1,582 rushing yards with 14 TDs this season. Jabre Barber leads the Trojans in receiving with 65 grabs for 892 yards along with 5 touchdowns while Chris Lewis has 735 receiving yards with a team-high 10 touchdown grabs. Deshon Stoudemire has 43 grabs for 569 yards while Devonte Ross has 38 grabs for 417 yards and another five Trojans have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Jayden McDonald leads the Trojans with 75 total tackles while Reddy Steward has 4 interceptions and Javon Solomon has a team-high 16 sacks. Richard Jibunor has 9 sacks as well on the year.

Troy Trojans Team Facts

• Troy has won each of its last 10 games.
• Troy has covered the spread in each of its last eight games in December.
• Troy has lost the first half in each of its last four games against opponents from the Atlantic Coast Conference.
• Each of Troy’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

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Duke Team Preview

The Duke Blue Devils come into this bowl game looking to put a cherry on top of their 7-5 record after closing out the year with a 30-19 win over Pitt. Riley Leonard has thrown for 1,102 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 57.6% passing while also rushing for 352 yards and 4 touchdowns but is in the transfer portal, leaving starting duties to Grayson Loftis who has thrown for 823 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3 INTs on 53.7% passing. Jordan Waters leads Duke in rushing with 753 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns but is also in the transfer portal, giving #1 RB duties to Jaquez Moore, who has 601 rushing yards and 6 TDs. Jordan Moore has a team-high 59 receptions for 794 yards and 8 touchdowns while Jalon Calhoun has 642 receiving yards and 4 TDs but has opted out of this game to focus on the NFL draft. Three more Blue Devils have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Tre Freeman has a team-high 97 total tackles while Aeneas Peebles has a team-high 4 sacks.

Duke Blue Devils Team Facts

• Duke has won eight of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Duke has covered the spread in each of its last six Bowl games.
• Duke has won the first half in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Each of Duke’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.

Troy vs. Duke Prediction

I’m leaning towards Troy here. Don’t get me wrong, Duke is a solid team on paper and at least they have a QB in this game in Loftis who does have starting experienced this season and not every team can say that in today’s world of opt-outs. However, that doesn’t change how much the Blue Devils have lost coming into this game and Troy is the champion of what was a really good Sun Belt conference this season, a conference where 10 teams have a bowl game. Give me Troy in this one.