UCF Knights (3-1) vs. Florida Gators (2-2)
October 5, 2024 7:45 pm EDT
The Line: Florida Gators -1.5 / UCF Knights +1.5; Over/Under: 58.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Central Florida Knights and the Florida Gators will meet Saturday in college football action from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Here’s a Florida vs UCF prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida vs UCF pick.
UCF Knights Betting Preview
The Knights got off to a pretty nice start this year. UCF didn’t have much trouble in their first two games, taking wins over New Hampshire 57-3 and Sam Houston 45-14. The Knights were tested by TCU in game three but still came out on top 35-34.
In the Colorado matchup, UCF gave up double-digit points in each of the first three quarters during a 48-21 blowout loss. KJ Jefferson finished with 284 pass yards, two scores, a rush TD, and two interceptions in the defeat.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
Over on the Gators’ side, they faced a tricky matchup versus Miami-FL in their opener and lost 41-17. Game two versus Samford was much more manageable and turned into a 45-7 win, but the Gators would fall the next week to Texas A&M 33-20.
In their latest outing versus Mississippi State, the Gators were up 28-14 by the break and eventually powered out the victory 45-28. QB Graham Mertz logged 201 yards with three scores, and Montrell Johnson led the rush with 68 yards off 15 totes.
Why the Florida Gators will win
- UCF has lost each of its last three October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Florida has won eight of its last nine October games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
- UCF has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a road favorite.
- The underdog has covered the spread in 11 of UCF’s last 13 games.
- Florida has won the first half in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Why the UCF Knights will win
- Florida has lost each of its last seven games as an underdog.
- The favorite has won each of Florida’s last seven games.
- Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of Florida’s last six games.
- UCF has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
- UCF has won the first quarter in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Florida’s last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of UCF’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.
Florida vs UCF Prediction
I’m probably going to try UCF. Last weekend the Knights shot themselves in the proverbial foot repeatedly on offense. UCF totaled four turnovers (two interceptions) and had seven penalties for 80 yards as part of a pretty sloppy overall game (10 penalties from the Buffaloes). The Knights need a much better effort this weekend.
As for Florida, they posted a nice effort versus Mississippi State in their last appearance, with 503 total yards (277 passing), 7.9 yards per play, 27 first downs, and a nice 6-of-9 rate on third-down conversions. Florida should come out firing in this one with the extra week of practice and rest, but I think UCF can keep the cover pace.
