Florida vs Kentucky Prediction 10-19-24 College Football Picks

The Kentucky Wildcats and the Florida Gators will meet Saturday in college football action from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Here’s a Florida vs Kentucky prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida vs Kentucky pick.

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview

Kentucky notched a blowout win over Southern Miss in their opener 31-0, but then fell to South Carolina 31-6 and Georgia 13-12 in the next pair. The Wildcats recovered with wins over Ohio 41-6 and Ole Miss 20-17 in games four and five, though.

In the Vanderbilt game last weekend, the Wildcats were down 17-7 going into the fourth quarter and ultimately fell 20-13. Brock Vandagriff threw for 158 yards and a TD. Topping the receivers was Dane Key with eight grabs for 83 yards and the touchdown.

Florida Gators Betting Preview

Over on the Florida side, they managed a 3-2 start over their first five games. The two losses came 41-7 versus Miami-FL and 33-20 against Texas A&M. Otherwise it was wins 45-7 over Samford, 45-28 versus Mississippi State and 24-13 against UCF.

Last weekend versus Tennessee, Florida held the Vols in check for most of the game but would eventually lose a tough one 23-17 in overtime. The Gators got 125 yards and a TD from QB Graham Mertz (who left with a leg injury) with 12 carries and 85 yards from lead rusher Montrell Johnson.

Why the Florida Gators will win

• Kentucky has lost nine of its last 10 games in October.
• Florida has won nine of its last 10 October games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
• Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four October games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The favorite has covered the spread in four of Florida’s last five games at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win

• The road team has won four of Kentucky’s last five games.
• Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog.
• Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games after coming off overtime.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Kentucky’s last nine October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Florida’s last five games as a favorite against Kentucky have gone UNDER the total points line.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

I’m going with Florida. The Gators suffered a couple of rough blows over the weekend, losing a tight one to a great Tennessee team and also seeing Mertz leave the game injured. The good news is that freshman QB DJ Lagway should be able to step in and keep things moving. Outside of that, the Florida defense (which gave up just 312 yards and 4-of-15 on third downs to the Vols) will keep the scoreboard manageable here.

As for Kentucky, they played a sloppy game (12 penalties) against Vanderbilt and gained just 322 total yards (158 passing) in their latest loss. The Wildcats’ defense was pretty solid though (288 yards allowed) so this weekend’s matchup could be a relatively low-scoring affair.