The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators meet in week 6 college football action from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday.

Vanderbilt Loses Fourth Straight

The Vanderbilt Commodores took their 4th straight loss in their last game, falling to 2-4 on the year by virtue of a 38-21 loss to Missouri in their last matchup. AJ Swann has thrown for 1,290 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 53.8% passing while Patrick Smith leads Vandy in rushing with 238 rushing yards and 2 TDs and Sedrick Alexander has 180 rushing yards and 3 scores as well. Will Sheppard leads Vanderbilt’s receivers with 32 grabs for 443 yards and 7 touchdowns while London Humphreys has 299 receiving yards with 3 scores and Jayden McGowan’s added 302 receiving yards and 24 receptions this season. On defense, CJ Taylor has a team-high 40 total tackles and 3 sacks while De’Rickey Wright has a pair of interceptions. As a whole, Vanderbilt’s defense has combined for 10 sacks and 7 interceptions this season.

Vanderbilt Commodores Team Facts

Vanderbilt has lost each of its last 10 October games as an underdog.
Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games.
Vanderbilt has lost the first half in 15 of its last 16 road games against conference opponents.
Each of Vanderbilt’s last six games have gone OVER the total points line.

Florida Falls Flat Against Kentucky

The Florida Gators come into this one on the heels of having their three-game win streak snapped after a 33-14 loss to the Wildcats last time out. Graham Mertz has thrown for 1,195 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 79% passing while Trevor Etienne has 358 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns and Montrell Johnson Jr. has 253 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Ricky Pearsall leads Florida’s receiving group with 29 grabs for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns while two more Gators have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Shemar James has a team-high 35 total tackles while Florida’s unit as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and an interception.

Florida Gators Team Facts

Florida has won 22 of its last 24 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Florida has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 15 games as a favorite.
Florida has won the first half in 12 of its last 16 games against conference opponents at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Florida has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against conference opponents at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Six of Florida’s last seven games against conference opponents at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

Florida ranked T23rd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (8.2).
Florida ranked T25th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.538).
Vanderbilt was one of only 17 FBS teams with a better road winning percentage (.500) than home winning percentage (.333) last season (min. 8 games).
Vanderbilt ranked 17th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game last season (8.8).

Chris’ Pick

I’m looking at the Gators here, but I’m not loving this line. Vandy’s played in a lot of high-scoring games, but more often than not this season, it’s because their defense has been gashed left and right like a hot knife going through butter. Florida hasn’t been all that impressive, but the Commodores are just not built to slow down Florida and are not built to break down this defense with their offense. I’ll lean towards the Gators but not rushing to bet this one.