Illinois vs Purdue Prediction 10/4/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate an Illinois vs Purdue Prediction for this College Football Week 6 game on Saturday, October 4^th at the Ross-Ade Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Purdue Preview

Purdue has a 2-2 record this season. They are 2-2 ATS, 1-3 in Over/Under and have a 2-1 home record and 0-1 away record. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-56 road loss at Notre Dame and are playing Illinois, Minnesota and Northwestern next.

Offensively, the Boilermakers average 28.0 points per game, which ranks 78th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 26.5 points per game, which is 89th. Purdue averages 385.8 total yards per game, with 106.3 rushing yards and 279.5 passing yards per game. They allow 370.3 total yards per game, with 157.3 rushing and 213 passing yards per game.

Ryan Browne leads the Boilermakers with 1036 passing yards and 63.1% completed passes. Devin Mockobee leads the team in rushing yards, with 246, while Michael Jackson III has a team-high 18 caught passes for 211 receiving yards, and has 1 touchdown. Defensively, Myles Slusher has a team-high 28 total tackles, 23 of them solo. CJ Nunnally IV leads the Boilermakers in sacks, with 2.

Illinois Preview

Illinois has a 4-1 record this season. They are 4-1 ATS, 3-2 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 away record and 3-0 home record. The Fighting Illini are coming off a 34-32 home win vs USC and are playing Purdue, Ohio State and Washington next.

Offensively, the Fighting Illini average 35.8 points per game, which ranks 39th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 23.4 points per game, which is 70th. Illinois averages 376.0 total yards per game, with 133.4 rushing yards and 242.6 passing yards per game. They allow 374.4 total yards per game, with 132 rushing and 242.4 passing yards per game.

Luke Altmyer leads the Fighting Illini with 1183 passing yards and 71.4% completed passes. Kaden Feagin leads the team in rushing yards, with 300, while Hank Beatty has a team-high 27 caught passes for 383 receiving yards, and has 1 touchdown. Defensively, Miles Scott has a team-high 27 total tackles, 20 of them solo. Gabe Jacas leads the Fighting Illini in sacks, with 4, while Dylan Rosiek has one interception.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Purdue Boilermakers will win

• Purdue has won three of its last four games as an underdog against Illinois.
• Illinois has lost each of its last four games in Indiana.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last six games between Illinois and Purdue.
• Illinois has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against teams from Indiana.
• Illinois has lost the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win

• Purdue has lost each of its last 11 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Illinois has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Illinois has covered the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Purdue has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight home games against teams from Illinois.
• Purdue has lost the first half in each of its last nine games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Illinois’ last six games as a favorite against Purdue have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of Purdue’s last seven October games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Purdue Boilermakers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Nitro Tuggle leads Purdue for touchdowns (3) this season.

Illinois Fighting Illini Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 6, Luke Altmyer ranks 6th amongst qualified players for passer rating (129.8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Purdue ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (1.5).
• Purdue ranks T7th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (85.7).
• Illinois has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Illinois has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).

Illinois vs Purdue Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, Illinois won 50-49 at home in overtime. Purdue has won their four previous meetings, and are 3-1 in their last 4 home meetings against Illinois. Their last three meetings have gone over the total.

In this Illinois vs Purdue Prediction, Illinois is coming as -9.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 57 points. Purdue is coming off back-to-back losses, while on the other hand, Illinois has lost only once in their five games played this season. The Fighting Illini are better both offensively and defensively, and have been winning by an average of 12.4 points per game. The value here lies with the road favorite, so take Illinois and lay the -9.5 points in this one.