UTEP Miners (0-2) vs. Liberty Flames (2-0)
September 14, 2024 6:00 pm EDT
The Line: Liberty Flames -22.5 / UTEP Miners +22.5; Over/Under: +57.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The UTEP Miners and the Liberty Flames will meet Saturday in college football action from Williams Stadium. Here’s a Liberty vs UTEP prediction. We will be looking at this from a betting perspective and determining the best Liberty vs UTEP pick.
UTEP Miners Betting Preview
The Miners’ opener matchup was against Nebraska. That one didn’t go so well as UTEP gave up 23 second-quarter points in a 40-7 loss. Skyler Locklear bagged 115 yards, a TD, and an interception. Kam Thomas led the receivers with seven catches for 71 yards and a score.
Matched up against Southern Utah on Saturday, the Miners held a 17-6 halftime lead but ultimately fell in overtime 27-24. Locklear managed 295 yards and a TD. Thomas led the receivers again on 99 yards from five catches. UTEP will take on Colorado State after this game.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview
Over on the Flames’ side, they played Campbell in their first matchup. Liberty scored double-digits in the final three quarters during a 41-24 win. QB Kaidon Salter had 242 yards and two touchdowns. Quinton Cooley led the rush with 110 yards and a TD.
In the New Mexico State game on Saturday, the Flames were in trouble with a 17-9 deficit going into the final quarter. Liberty scored three touchdowns from there however and won 30-24. Salter had 256 yards this time, and Cooley bagged 12 carries for 111 yards and two scores.
Why the Liberty Flames will win
- Liberty has won each of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UTEP has lost 15 of its last 16 road games in September.
- UTEP has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Liberty has covered the spread in five of its last six September home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UTEP has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the UTEP Miners will win
- The road team has won eight of UTEP’s last 10 games.
- UTEP has covered the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
- Liberty has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
Total Points Facts
- Five of Liberty’s last six home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of UTEP’s last six September games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Liberty ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage this season (1.000).
- Liberty ranks T1st among FBS teams for H2 win percentage this season (1.000).
- UTEP ranks T26th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (10.5).
Liberty vs UTEP Prediction
I’m leaning toward Liberty but probably staying away. The Flames had some rough numbers on offense despite notching 473 total yards (217 rushing) and 7.4 yards per play. Liberty went just 1-of-11 on third-down tries, resulting in 28:56 in time of possession. Another major killer was the 11 penalties for 122 yards.
As for UTEP, they played a sloppy game themselves with 14 penalties for 122 yards in their loss last weekend. The Miners had a pretty good offensive game (423 total yards) overall but weren’t great on thirds themselves (5-of-16). This one’s probably a toss-up proposition cover-wise, but I’m leaning Flames.
