SMU Mustangs (4-1) vs. Louisville Cardinals (3-1)
October 5, 2024 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 / SMU Mustangs +6.5; Over/Under: +56.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The SMU Mustangs and the Louisville Cardinals will meet Saturday in college football action from Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. Here’s a Louisville vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Louisville vs SMU pick.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
SMU managed wins in three of their first four games. The Mustangs took out Nevada 29-24, Houston Christian 59-7 and TCU by a score of 66-42. The lone blemish in that quartet was a loss to BYU, 18-15 in a tough result.
Last weekend versus Florida State, the Mustangs outscored the Seminoles 28-7 in the second half and cruised to a big win 42-16. QB Kevin Jennings finished with 254 yards and three touchdowns. Brashard Smith carried 17 times for 129 yards and a score of his own.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
Over on the Louisville side, they got off to a nice start as well with victories in their first three outings. The Cardinals beat Austin Peay 62-0, then Jacksonville State 49-14. Game three was a 31-19 affair versus Georgia Tech.
Matched up against Notre Dame on Saturday, the Cardinals gave up 21 points in the first quarter and couldn’t catch back up in a 31-24 loss. Tyler Shough put up 264 yards with three scores and an interception. Isaac Brown added 72 rush yards off his 13 carries, and Ja’Corey Brooks caught five balls for 71 yards and a pair of TDs.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won each of its last eight home games against conference opponents.
- SMU has lost 15 of its last 17 road games against AP-ranked teams.
- Louisville has covered the spread in seven of its last eight home games against conference opponents.
- SMU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as a road underdog.
- Louisville has won the first half in each of its last six home games against conference opponents.
- Louisville has won the first quarter in four of its last five home games against conference opponents.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won each of its last 11 games against conference opponents.
- SMU has covered the spread in each of its last five games in October.
- Louisville has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 17 October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- SMU has won the first half in each of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of SMU’s last seven October games as an underdog has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Louisville’s last four October games as a home favorite has gone UNDER the total points line.
Louisville vs SMU Prediction
I’m going with Louisville. The Cardinals need to sharpen up a bit after a tough loss to Notre Dame, though. Louisville finished that one with 395 yards (264 passing), 19 first downs, and 7-of-17 on third-down tries. The real killers were the three turnovers, though. Defensively Louisville was pretty great statistically, so if they can carry that sort of intensity into this game the Cardinals will do well.
As for SMU, they put up 458 yards (254 passing) in the win over Florida State. The Mustangs held the Seminoles to 285 yards (63 rushing), 13 first down, and 3-of-12 on third-down conversions on the other side. Louisville will be a much trickier opponent though, and I like the Cardinals to prevail cover-wise.
