Purdue Boilermakers (1-9) vs. Michigan State Spartans (4-6)
November 22, 2024 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Michigan State Spartans -14.5 / Purdue Boilermakers +14.5; Over/Under: +46.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Purdue Boilermakers and the Michigan State Spartans meet Friday in college football action from Spartan Stadium. Here’s a Michigan State vs Purdue prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan State vs Purdue pick.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
The Boilermakers got off to a nice start with a blowout win over Indiana State in their opener. That said, Purdue would lose to Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon, Northwestern, and Ohio State in the next eight games.
On Saturday versus Penn State, the Boilermakers gave up 14 points in the first quarter and 21 in the third for a 49-10 blowout loss. Hudson Card threw for 151 yards, while Devin Mockobee led the rush on 40 yards from 11 carries. Max Klare caught seven balls for 91 yards and a score.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
Over on the Spartans’ side, they won their first three games before falling to Boston College, Ohio State, and Oregon in succession. Michigan State would recover with a win over Iowa before two more losses to Michigan and Indiana.
In the Illinois matchup last weekend, the Spartans were down 21-9 by halftime and gave up 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points for a 38-16 loss. Aidan Chiles posted 256 yards with two TDs, and Montorie Foster caught six balls for 76 yards in the defeat.
Why the Michigan State Spartans will win
- Purdue has lost each of its last nine games.
- Michigan State has won each of its last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Purdue has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games.
- The favorite has covered the spread in eight of Purdue’s last 10 games.
- Purdue has lost the first half in each of its last six games against conference opponents.
- Michigan State has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the Purdue Boilermakers will win
- Purdue has won four of its last six November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan State has lost six of its last seven games.
- Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven November games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Purdue has covered the spread in five of its last six November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan State has lost the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Michigan State’s last seven November games at Spartan Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Purdue’s last five November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction
I’ll go with Michigan State. Both these teams could use a good showing though, as they’re each coming off a difficult loss. The Spartans managed just 2-of-15 on third-down tries in their loss to Illinois while allowing 8-of-15 on the other side. The Spartans have 17 or fewer points in five of the last six games, but to be fair they’ve played some very difficult teams in that time.
As for Purdue, they were steamrolled by Penn State on Saturday with 539 yards (305 passing), 8.8 yards per play, and 9-of-14 on third-down tries allowed. The Boilermakers mustered a tepid 5-of-14 on third-down tries with just 16 first downs themselves. Purdue has 10 or fewer points in three of the last four games, but the good news is that they should match up much better here. I don’t think the Boilermakers will quite cover, though.
