Michigan State Spartans (4-3) vs. Michigan Wolverines (4-3)
October 26, 2024 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Michigan Wolverines -9.5 / Michigan State Spartans +9.5; Over/Under: +44.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Michigan State Spartans and the Michigan Wolverines will meet Saturday in college football action from Michigan Stadium. Here’s a Michigan vs Michigan State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan vs Michigan State pick.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
The Spartans’ season kicked off with a trio of wins over Florida Atlantic 16-10, Maryland 27-24 and Prairie View 40-0. Michigan State would lose the next three games to Boston College 23-19, Ohio State 38-7, and Oregon 31-10.
In the Iowa game last weekend, the Spartans scored points in every quarter along the way to a 32-20 victory. Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles posted 256 yards with a TD and an interception. Nick Marsh led the receivers on 113 yards from eight catches.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
Over on the Wolverines’ side, they fell to Texas 31-12 in game two but otherwise beat Fresno State 30-10, Arkansas State 28-18, USC 27-24, and Minnesota 27-24 in their first five games. Next came a 27-17 loss to Washington, though.
In their matchup with Illinois on Saturday the Wolverines gave up points in each of the first three quarters along the way to a 21-7 road loss. QB Jack Tuttle finished with 208 yards and an interception. Kalel Mullings carried 19 times for 87 yards and a rushing score.
Why the Michigan Wolverines will win
- Michigan has won each of its last 22 games against non-AP-ranked teams at Michigan Stadium.
- Michigan State has lost each of its last five road games in October.
- Michigan has covered the spread in eight of its last nine home games in October.
- Michigan has won the first quarter in each of its last four home games against conference opponents.
- Michigan has won the first half in each of its last 15 games against conference opponents at Michigan Stadium.
Why the Michigan State Spartans will win
- Michigan State has won four of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan State has covered the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Ten of Michigan State’s last 11 road games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Michigan’s last four October games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Michigan ranks 129th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (128.3).
- Michigan ranks 8th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (83.3).
- Michigan State ranks 131st among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (1.9).
- Michigan State ranks T127th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-5.4).
Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction
I’ll go with Michigan State here. The Spartans are coming off a pretty nice defensive effort in their win over the Hawkeyes. Michigan State gave up 283 yards (133 rushing) in that one along with just 12 first downs and a 5-of-11 rate on third-down tries. On offense, Michigan State gained 468 yards (256 passing) and 27 first downs in a solid all-around effort.
As for Michigan, they ran into a tough Illinois team in their road loss over the weekend. The Wolverines had three turnovers on offense and went a spotty 5-of-14 on third-down conversions. Michigan should rebound and play better in this weekend’s matchup, but I think the Spartans can hang around well enough to cover.
