Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky Prediction 9-14-24 College Football Picks

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will meet on Saturday in college football action from Floyd Stadium. Here’s a Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky prediction. We will be looking at this from a betting perspective and determining the best Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky pick.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

In their first matchup of the 2024 season, WKU took on a very good Alabama team. The Hilltoppers were decisively blown out in that one 63-0. TJ Finley managed 92 pass yards and two picks. Tops in receiving was Moussa Barry with 27 yards off four grabs.

In game two the Hilltoppers played Eastern Kentucky. In that one, WKU held a 17-0 advantage by halftime and eventually came out on top 31-0. Finley bagged 351 pass yards and a score in the win. Leading the rush was Elijah Young with 52 yards and two scores off 13 carries.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview

Over on the Middle Tennessee side, they kicked things off against Tennessee Tech. The Raiders were outscored 20-11 in the second half but held on for the win 32-25. Nicholas Vattiato had 210 yards with one TD and one interception. Frank Peasant rushed 10 times for 49 yards and a pair of scores.

Matched up against Ole Miss last weekend, the Raiders were overmatched. Middle Tennessee was down 31-3 by halftime and limped to a blowout loss of 52-3. Vattiato managed 209 pass yards and a pick this time. Holden Willis was the top receiver on seven catches for 94 yards.

Why the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will win

• The home team has won each of Middle Tennessee’s last eight games.
• Western Kentucky has lost five of its last six road games in September.
• Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 games between Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee.
• Middle Tennessee has won the first half in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.
• Middle Tennessee has won the first quarter in each of its last five home games against conference opponents.

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win

• Western Kentucky has won eight of its last nine games against Middle Tennessee.
• Middle Tennessee has lost each of its last six games as an underdog.
• Western Kentucky has covered the spread in 10 of its last 11 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• Western Kentucky has won the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents.
• Western Kentucky has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Middle Tennessee’s last six home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Western Kentucky’s last five September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Western Kentucky has won the C-USA Championship in two of the last nine seasons.

Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky Prediction

I’ll lean toward Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers didn’t have too many issues against Eastern Kentucky in their last outing. WKU posted 467 total yards (351 passing), 7.3 yards per play, 25 first downs, and a nice 6-of-10 rate on third-down tries. On defense, the Hilltoppers gave up 266 yards (76 passing) and 13 first downs. The Colonels’ 10 penalties didn’t hurt, either.

As for Middle Tennessee, there was little chance of them staying close to Ole Miss—and they didn’t. The Raiders gave up 655 total yards (397 passing) and 34 first downs in the blowout loss. This weekend’s matchup will be significantly easier, but I still don’t think MTSU will cover it.