College Football

Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction 9-21-24 College Football Picks

Florida Gators (1-2) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2)
September 21, 2024 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs +6 / Florida Gators -6; Over/Under: +57.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Florida Gators and the Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in college football action from Davis Wade Stadium. Here’s a Mississippi State vs Florida prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mississippi State vs Florida pick.

Florida Gators Betting Preview

Florida’s first matchup of the 2024 season was a tough one against Miami-FL. The Gators didn’t fare too well in that one, losing 41-17. Game two was a much easier proposition. Florida dominated Samford in a 45-7 blowout to get back to .500 on the year.

Last weekend versus Texas A&M, the Gators faced a 20-0 deficit by the break. Florida got better in the second half but still lost 33-20. Graham Mertz posted 195 pass yards, one TD, and one pick. Elijhah Badger was tops in receiving on five catches for 94 yards and a score.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Over on the Bulldogs’ side, they didn’t have any issues in their opener matchup either. Mississippi State took care of Eastern Kentucky in blowout fashion 56-7. The Bulldogs would falter in game two however, dropping to Arizona State 30-23 in a road matchup.

In game three versus Toledo, the Bulldogs were down 28-3 by the end of the second quarter. Mississippi State kept pace from there in a 41-17 blowout loss. QB Blake Shapen logged 319 yards with two TDs and an interception. Kevin Coleman caught seven balls for 77 yards and a score to top the receivers.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

  • Florida has lost five of its last six games as a road favorite.
  • Mississippi State has won 11 of its last 13 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Florida has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.

Why the Florida Gators will win

  • Florida has won each of its last 14 September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Mississippi State has lost seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
  • Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games as a home underdog.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of Florida’s last five games.
  • Mississippi State has lost the first half in nine of its last 10 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

  • Each of Florida’s last eight games against conference opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Four of Mississippi State’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Mississippi State vs Florida prediction

I’ll stick with Florida I suppose. Both these teams need a good bounce-back, though. The Gators notched just 301 total yards (249 passing) with three interceptions and a rough 2-of-9 on third-down tries in their latest loss. The rush defense wasn’t great either (310 yards allowed), which led to a 37:46 mark in time of possession for the Aggies.

As for Mississippi State, they committed two turnovers and 10 penalties in a pretty sloppy loss to Toledo over the weekend. The Bulldogs gave up 454 yards (285 passing) on the other side along with 26 first downs and 37:04 in time of possession. It’s tough telling how this one will go but Florida should have a good shot at a cover if they play well.

Andrew's Free Pick: Florida Gators -6

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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