Memphis Tigers (8-4) vs. NC State Wolfpack (7-5)
December 19, 2025 2:30 pm EDT
The Line: NC State Wolfpack -4.5 / Memphis Tigers 4.5; Over/Under: 58.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Memphis Tigers and NC State Wolfpack meet Friday in the college football Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s a NC State vs Memphis Prediction. This article will include a NC State vs Memphis Pick.
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview
The Memphis Tigers lost to East Carolina and Navy. Memphis has lost 3 straight games. Brendon Lewis is completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 2,567 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Cortez Braham Jr. and Jamari Hawkins have combined for 1,480 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Marcello Bussey has 24 receptions.
The Memphis Tigers ground game is averaging 203 yards per contest, and Sutton Smith leads the way with 669 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Memphis is allowing 24.5 points and 393.9 yards per game. Sam Brumfield leads the Memphis Tigers with 106 tackles, Drue Watts has 3 sacks and DeMarco Ward has 2 interceptions.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
The NC State Wolfpack beat Florida State and North Carolina. NC State has split its last 10 games. CJ Bailey is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,884 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Terrell Anderson and Justin Joly have combined for 1,105 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while Nah Rogers has 31 receptions.
The NC State Wolfpack ground game is averaging 149.1 yards per contest, and Hollywood Smothers leads the way with 939 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, NC State is allowing 28.8 points and 421 yards per game. Caden Fordham leads the NC State Wolfpack with 130 tackles, Travali Price has 3.5 sacks and Devon Marshall has 2 interceptions.
Why the NC State Wolfpack will win
- NC State has won five of its last six games against opponents from the American Conference.
- Memphis has lost four of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Memphis has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against teams from North Carolina.
- NC State has covered the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite.
- NC State has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against opponents from the American Conference.
Why the Memphis Tigers will win
- Memphis has won each of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents.
- NC State has lost each of its last six games at neutral venues.
- Memphis has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.
- NC State has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents.
- NC State has lost the first half in each of its last six games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
- Memphis has won the first quarter in each of its last seven games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Memphis’ last eight games against teams from North Carolina have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of NC State’s last five games against opponents from the American Conference have gone UNDER the total points line.
NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Justin Joly ranks T1st in the Atlantic Coast Conference for receiving touchdowns (7) this season.
Memphis Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into the bowl games, Sutton Smith ranks 17th amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (6.6) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- NC State ranks 134th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (283.1).
- NC State ranks 9th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (92.7).
- Memphis ranks 5th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (93.8).
- Memphis ranks 6th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+5.4).
NC State vs Memphis Prediction
You can give the over a look here, as Memphis can’t stop the passing game and NC State isn’t good defensively across the board. NC State is 111th in total defense, 133rd in passing defense and 91st in scoring defense. However, I’m going to lay the points with NC State. Memphis enters the bowl game with 3 straight losses, which includes losses to Navy and Tulane as favorites. Usually when a team enters the bowl in poor form, it doesn’t get prettier. I doubt a trip to Tampa spices up the mood of the Memphis Tigers.
NC State finished the season strong with two straight wins, which includes a nice upset win over Florida State. Motivation can often be the deciding factor in these bowl games. Who wants to be here and who is just waiting for the season to end. NC State is in far better form. Give me the Wolf Pack by a touchdown.
