NC State vs North Carolina Prediction Football Picks Today 11/29/25

The North Carolina Tar Heels and NC State Wolfpack meet Saturday in college football action at Carter-Finley Stadium. Here’s a NC State vs North Carolina Prediction. This article will include a NC State vs North Carolina Pick.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels lost to Wake Forest and Duke. North Carolina has lost 6 of its last 8 games. Gio Lopez is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,629 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Jordan Shipp and Kobe Paysour have combined for 970 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Demon June has 14 receptions.

The North Carolina Tar Heels ground game is averaging 108.4 yards per contest, and Demon June leads the way with 461 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 22.9 points and 332.5 yards per game. Khmori House leads the North Carolina Tar Heels with 74 tackles, Melkart Abou Jaoude has 10 sacks and Malcolm Ziglar has 1 interception.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview

The NC State Wolfpack lost to Miami and beat Florida State. NC State has lost 5 of its last 8 games. CJ Bailey is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,683 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Terrell Anderson and Justin Joly have combined for 1,034 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Wesley Grimes has 23 receptions.

The NC State Wolfpack ground game is averaging 160.4 yards per contest, and Hollywood Smothers leads the way with 907 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, NC State is allowing 31.6 points and 478.7 yards per game. Caden Fordham leads the NC State Wolfpack with 118 tackles, Sabastian Harsh has 2.5 sacks and Devon Marshall has 2 interceptions.

Why the NC State Wolfpack will win

• North Carolina has lost each of its last nine games as an underdog in North Carolina.
• The home team has won each of NC State’s last six games.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of NC State’s last six games.
• North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games in November.
• NC State has won the first quarter in each of its last three home games against conference opponents.
• North Carolina has lost the first half in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• The underdog has won each of the last three games between North Carolina and NC State.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last four games between North Carolina and NC State.
• NC State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four November games as a home favorite.
• NC State has lost the first half in 12 of its last 16 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last five games between North Carolina and NC State have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of North Carolina’s last six games as an underdog in North Carolina have gone OVER the total points line.

NC State Wolfpack Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Justin Joly ranks T1st in the Atlantic Coast Conference for receiving touchdowns (6) this season.

North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Melkart Abou-Jaoude ranks T8th amongst FBS players for sacks (10.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• NC State ranks 136th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (291.1).
• NC State ranks 6th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (94.1).
• North Carolina ranks 131st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (291.3).
• North Carolina ranks T6th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (73.3).

NC State vs North Carolina Prediction

The underdog has covered 7 of the last 9 games between North Carolina and NC State, but I’m going to lay the points. North Carolina has no offense to speak of and while NC State has had issues getting stops, I have no confidence in the Tar Heels moving the ball. NC State becomes bowl eligible with a victory and its senior night for 24 seniors. North Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. I don’t love the hook on top of a key number, but this has to do with my lack of trust in UNC. I’ll lay the points with NC State at home as the Wolfpack go bowling.