New Mexico State vs Missouri State Prediction Football Picks Today 10/22/25

The Missouri State Bears and the New Mexico State Aggies meet Wednesday in college football action from Aggie Memorial Stadium. Here’s a New Mexico State vs Missouri State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best New Mexico State vs Missouri State pick.

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

The Bears have had a few pretty tricky matchups on the card so far this year, starting with a blowout loss to USC in their opener. Missouri State recovered with a win over Marshall on the road, then fell by 18 to SMU. In game four the Bears evened their record back up with a blowout win over Tennessee-Martin then lost another one 27-22 versus Western Kentucky. Missouri State managed 414 yards of offense in that one—including 214 rushing yards alone—but went just 2-of-12 on third-down tries in their tight loss.

The good news for Missouri State is that they were able to even things back up to .500 overall in their latest matchup with Middle Tennessee back on October 8. The Bears were up by three points at the break, then added a couple of field goals in the second half in order to power out the competitive road win 22-20 in the end. QB Deuce Bailey finished 16-of-31 for 278 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a score. Shomari Lawrence was the team’s leading rusher with 11 totes for 63 yards, and Ramone Greene had a lone 76-yard catch. Ronnel Johnson caught five balls and the touchdown among his 69 yards total in the win.

New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

Over on the Aggies’ side, they were able to start off the season with a couple of wins, taking out Bryant and Tulsa in their first pair. The next two outings were both losses though, as New Mexico State fell to Louisiana Tech and New Mexico from there. The Aggies responded with a 37-10 win over Sam Houston in game five though, lifting their record to 3-2 overall. In that win New Mexico State posted 350 yards on offense with 20 first downs and 6.1 yards per play on average. The defense came up with three takeaways and held the Bearkats to just 3-of-13 on third-down tries in a nice effort.

Unfortunately for New Mexico State, they took another loss in their latest outing. That one came versus Liberty, and the Aggies were down 20-6 by the end of the first half. New Mexico State stormed back with a couple of unanswered third-quarter touchdowns but ended up losing 30-27 by game’s end in a tough result. QB Logan Fife had a 20-of-37 line for 242 yards and a pair of scores, while Kadarius Calloway carried 18 times for 84 yards and a score. Leading the receivers in the loss was Tyler King with five grabs for 68 yards. Gavin Harris added four catches for 62 yards in the losing effort as well.

Missouri State Bears @ New Mexico State Aggies Betting Trends: Week 9

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Ezra Christensen leads the Conference USA for sacks (5.0) this season.

Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Ramone Green Jr. leads the Conference USA for yards per reception (19.6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico State ranks 136th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (66.3).
• New Mexico State ranks 130th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.7).
• Missouri State ranks 135th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (13.2).
• Missouri State ranks 134th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (26.9).

New Mexico State vs Missouri State Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Aggies. New Mexico State didn’t get off to a great start in their latest game on the road versus Liberty and ended up with a couple of lost fumbles. The offense did well though, posting 388 total yards with 23 first downs and a 10-of-17 success rate on third-down tries otherwise. Defensively the Aggies were also pretty strong with three takeaways and just 3-of-10 allowed on third downs. There were simply too many mistakes for a tricky road matchup, though. Still, New Mexico State is at least scoring better over the last couple of games, notching 64 combined points in that pair following a pretty slow start this year.

As for Missouri State, they’ve been off the field for a while (October 8). That could be a good or a bad thing here.