North Carolina vs Appalachian State Prediction Football Picks 9-9-23
North Carolina Tar Heels (1-0) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers (1-0)
2023-09-09 17:15:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: North Carolina Tar Heels -14.5 -- Over/Under: 63.5
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The Appalachian State Mountaineers and the North Carolina Tar Heels meet Saturday in college football action from Kenan Memorial Stadium. Appalachian State enters this one after an opener matchup versus Gardner-Webb. In that one the Mountaineers won by 21 points. As for North Carolina, they’re coming off a game against South Carolina. The Tar Heels ended up winning by two scores. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State had a home matchup against Gardner-Webb in their opener last weekend. The Mountaineers went into halftime with a 14-10 lead, then turned on the jets in the second half on the way to a 45-24 victory. QB Joey Aguilar led the way on 174 yards and four scores, while Nate Noel had 117 rush yards with a score on 24 carries.
The Mountaineers gave up 360 total yards on defense (to their own 394) during their opener win, along with 19 first downs and 7-of-17 on third-down plays. The key stat on that side of the ball was the three takeaways however, as App State had zero turnovers themselves.
Appalachian State Mountaineers Team Facts
The home team has won each of Appalachian State’s last nine games.
Appalachian State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games.
Appalachian State has won the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
Appalachian State has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
Each of Appalachian State’s last five games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Over on the North Carolina side, they had a tough time keeping South Carolina at bay during the first half of their opener game. The Tar Heels went into the break with a 17-14 lead, but then held a 14-3 advantage the rest of the way for a 31-17 win. QB Drake Maye posted 269 yards, two scores and two picks. British Brooks added 103 yards on 15 carries.
The Tar Heels’ defense was on point Saturday when it came to stopping the run. North Carolina gave up minus-2 yards on the ground, 20 first downs and 4-of-14 on third-down tries. South Carolina had a little success through the air though, as UNC gave up 353 passing yards to their own 269.
North Carolina Tar Heels Team Facts
North Carolina has won five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
The team ranked 17th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
North Carolina has won the first half in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
North Carolina has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
Six of North Carolina’s last seven September home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
North Carolina was one of only six FBS teams to remain undefeated in road games last season (6-0) (min. 8 games).
North Carolina was one of only 17 FBS teams with a better road winning percentage (1.000) than home winning percentage (.500) last season (min. 8 games).
Appalachian State ranked 5th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (10.1).
Appalachian State ranked T10th among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.667).
ANDREW’S FREE PICK
I’m probably going to stay with North Carolina in this one, but I’m not super enthused about it. The Tar Heels played pretty well overall in a tricky road opener versus South Carolina last weekend, but there’s still plenty to clean up. UNC had two interceptions and seven penalties for 49 yards, not to mention the zero takeaways on defense. Still, there’s not much to complain about when it comes to a road victory. As for App State, they benefitted from Gardner-Webb’s three turnovers and a clean game with just two penalties. The Mountaineers are going to have to move the chains better in game two if they want to stay in range, though; 4-of-13 on third downs isn’t going to do it. The Tar Heels should be in control here but I’m probably staying away.