North Carolina vs TCU Prediction Football Picks Today 9/1/25

In this article we will formulate a North Carolina vs TCU prediction for this College Football game on Monday, September 1st at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup. 

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels were 6-7 (3-5) last year and they finished tied for 10th in the ACC standings with Pittsburgh, NC State, and Virginia. North Carolina had two separate three game winning streaks in 2024, but struggled in the other half of their season. UNC picked up wins against Minnesota, Charlotte, NC Central, Virginia, Florida State, and Wake Forest, while they lost to James Madison, Duke, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Boston College, and NC State. The Tar Heels went to the Fenway Bowl, where they lost by a score of 27-14 against UConn. North Carolina scored 30.9 points per game last season, which was ranked 45th in the country, while they allowed 28.1 points against per game, which was ranked 89th. 

This season, North Carolina is expected to start Gio Lopez under center, but there is hardly any returning production in the passing game. The Tar Heels should have a decent offensive line, but it won’t be easy to replace Hampton at the running back spot. On defense, North Carolina will look for more consistency and it should only help having the Belichick’s. UNC returns a good portion of their secondary, but the linebackers and DL are being built with a few players from the portal. This defense is going to take time to learn the scheme, but should be fine. 

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

The TCU Horned Frogs went 9-4 (6-3) last season and they finished tied for fifth in the Big 12 standings with Baylor and Texas Tech. TCU was just 5-4 in their first nine games, but they finished the season by winning four in a row. The Horned Frogs got wins against Stanford, LIU, Kansas, Utah, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati, but lost to UCF, SMU, Houston, and Baylor. TCU did go to the New Mexico Bowl, where they beat Louisiana by a score of 34-3. The Horned Frogs scored 33.5 points per game last season, which was ranked 25th, while they allowed 24.6 points against per game, which was ranked 63rd. 

This year, TCU will have one of the better quarterbacks in the country with Josh Hoover and they return 2-3 of their offensive line. The running backs and receivers are mostly coming from the portal, but Hoover should be able to make the offense work. On defense, the Horned Frogs will look to improve from last year, but they are experienced and should have a solid secondary. 

Why TCU will beat North Carolina

• TCU has won each of its last 11 road openers.
• North Carolina has lost five of its last six games in North Carolina.
• North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 11 games in North Carolina.
• TCU has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road openers.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of North Carolina’s last nine games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of TCU’s last nine road openers as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.

North Carolina vs TCU Prediction 

North Carolina comes into this season with high expectations with Belichick at the helm, so there should be plenty of momentum for them here. Both of these teams have a lot of new faces on offense, but TCU clearly has the quarterback advantage. I do think the North Carolina defense will be improved this year, but I think they will struggle in this game against Hoover. On the flip side, I don’t know how much I believe in Gio Lopez to start the season, so I will take TCU to cover on the road here.