North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction Football Picks Today 10/25/25

The Virginia Cavaliers and North Carolina Tar Heels meet Saturday in college football action at Kenan Stadium. Here’s a North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction. This article will include a North Carolina vs Virginia Pick.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

The Virginia Cavaliers beat Louisville and Washington State, and plays Cal next. The Virginia Cavaliers have won 5 straight games. Chandler Morris is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,607 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Trell Harris and Jahmal Edrine have combined for 740 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Cam Ross has 28 receptions.

The Virginia Cavaliers ground game is averaging 203.9 yards per contest, and J’Mari Taylor leads the way with 512 yards and 8 touchdowns. Defensively, Virginia is allowing 23.3 points and 353.9 yards per game. Devin Neal leads the Virginia Cavaliers with 40 tackles, Daniel Rickert has 4.5 sacks and Ja’son Prevard has 3 interceptions.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels lost to Clemson and Cal, and they play Syracuse next. North Carolina has lost 3 straight games. Gio Lopez is completing 59.8 percent of his passes for 597 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Jordan Shipp and Kobe Paysour have combined for 372 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Javarius Green has 8 receptions.

The North Carolina Tar Heels ground game is averaging 105.2 yards per contest, and Demon June leads the way with 276 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 25 points and 360 yards per game. Khmori House leads the North Carolina Tar Heels with 34 tackles, Melkart Abou Jaoude has 2 sacks and Malcolm Ziglar has 1 interception.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win

• The home team has won seven of Virginia’s last eight games.
• Virginia has lost three of its last four road games.
• North Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last four October home games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games in North Carolina.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• North Carolina has lost each of its last eight October games as a home underdog.
• Virginia has won each of its last five games.
• North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven home games against conference opponents.
• Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last five road games in October.
• Virginia has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
• North Carolina has lost the first half in each of its last four games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Virginia’s last nine October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of North Carolina’s last four October games against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Davion Gause leads North Carolina for touchdowns (2) this season.

Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 9, Ja’Son Prevard ranks T8th amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• North Carolina ranks 135th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (92).
• North Carolina ranks 133rd among FBS teams for yards per game this season (267.7).
• Virginia has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Virginia has played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).

North Carolina vs Virginia Prediction

Virginia is a shaky defensive team, and I hate backing favorites on the road with spotty defenses. However, North Carolina is still a bad team on both sides of the ball, and it’s hard to trust against even respectable competition. UNC is damn near nonexistent offensively, ranked 134th in total offense and 125th in scoring offense.

Virginia is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. In 4 games this season where Virginia has been a double-digit favorite, the Cavs have won by an average of 27.5 points. I have zero trust in North Carolina right now. Give me Virginia in a comfortable road win.