Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) vs Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2)
2023-09-30 15:30:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Purdue Boilermakers -1 -- Over/Under: 53.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Illinois Fighting Illini and the Purdue Boilermakers meet in week 5 college football action from Ross-Ade Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Illini Sneak By FAU
The Illinois Fighting Illini narrowly escaped FAU last week, improving to 2-2 on the year with a 23-17 victory over the Owls last time out. Luke Altmyer has thrown for 874 yards, 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 65.3% passing while also rushing for 146 yards and 3 TDs. Reggie Love III has 248 rushing yards and Josh McCray has 121 rushing yards. Isaiah Williams has a team-high 24 receptions for 333 yards while four more Illini receivers have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Keith Randolph Jr. has a team-high 27 total tackles while Jer’Zhan Newton has a pair of sacks. As a whole, Illinois’ defense has 5 sacks and 3 interceptions this season.
Illinois Fighting Illini Team Facts
Illinois has lost each of its last 11 September games as an underdog.
Illinois has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road games against conference opponents.
Illinois has won the first half in three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
Each of Illinois’ last six September road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Purdue Falls To Wisconsin
The Purdue Boilermakers had a chance for a big conference win at home last time out but instead dropped back-to-back games and fell to 1-3 with a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin last time out. Hudson Card has thrown for 1,027 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 62.8% passing while Devin Mockobee has a team-high 212 rushing yards with 2 touchdowns and Tyrone Tracy Jr has 176 rushing yards with 4 scores. Deion Burks has a team-high 294 receiving yards and Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen has a team-high 22 catches for 280 yards with Burks logging 3 receiving touchdowns this season. TJ Sheffield and Max Klare each have 150+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Dillon Thieneman has a team-high 38 total tackles and a pair of interceptions while Kydran Jenkins has a team-high 3 sacks. Nic Scourton and OC Brothers each have a pair of sacks and Cam Allen has a pair of interceptions as well. As a whole, Purdue’s defense has combined for 11 sacks and 5 interceptions this season.
Purdue Boilermakers Team Facts
Purdue has lost four of its last six matches as a home favorite when playing with a rest advantage.
Purdue has failed to cover the spread in each of its last seven games at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Purdue has lost the first half in each of its last three games against conference opponents.
Five of the last six games between Illinois and Purdue have gone UNDER the total points line.
Purdue ranked T21st among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (9.1).
Purdue ranked T21st among FBS teams for Q4 win percentage last season (.571).
Illinois ranked 1st among FBS teams for H2 points allowed per game last season (6.1).
Illinois ranked 2nd among FBS teams for Q4 points allowed per game last season (3.5).
I’m looking at Purdue here. This line is on the move, but I still think it’s telling that the Boilers opened as a favorite and I’ve said it for anyone with an ear, that I’m not sold on Illinois. This is not the same Illinois defense at all from last season and I don’t trust the offense with Luke Altmyer running things. Hudson Card is a decent quarterback and while Purdue’s offense has had issues at times, they’re still the better offense in my opinion, and I think the defenses are actually a coin flip here. Give me Purdue at home in this one.