The Texas State Bobcats and the Rice Owls meet Tuesday in First Responder Bowl college football action from Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Texas State is 7-5 overall this year and coming off an eight-point win over South Alabama in their last outing. As for Rice, they made it to 6-6 on the season with a victory versus Florida Atlantic in their most recent game. Let’s get into our Texas State vs. Rice prediction. Check back all season long for free college football picks at Sports Chat Place. 

Texas State Bobcats

The Bobcats managed a solid 6-3 run to start out the year, falling to only UTSA, Louisiana and Troy in that time. Texas State has since gone just 1-2 but they’re scoring well overall. The Bobcats averaged 36.0 points per game this year, with 280.8 yards per game, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions coming through the air. 

In their latest matchup versus South Alabama back on November 25, Texas State flexed their muscles on the scoreboard once again. The Bobcats scored 24 points in the first quarter and ended up powering out a victory 52-44. Quarterback TJ Finley posted 368 yards with three scores and a pick, while Ismail Mahdi rushed for 97 yards and a TD. 

Texas State Bobcats Team Facts

• The underdog has won each of Texas State’s last three games.
• Texas State has covered the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Three of Texas State’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

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Rice Owls 

Over on the Rice side, they went just 4-6 over their first 10 games this year. The wins in that time were over Houston, Texas Southern, East Carolina and Tulsa. The Owls have since won consecutive games and they’re averaging 30.3 points per game. Rice has gotten 28 scores and 11 interceptions via the pass this season with another 19 scores on the ground. 

Rice took on Florida Atlantic in their last matchup with a potential bowl bid on the line. The Owls scored 14 points in the third quarter and held on for the win 24-21. AJ Padgett managed 255 yards passing with three scores and an interception, while Luke McCaffrey had a big day with 141 yards and a TD on 12 catches.

Rice Owls Team Facts

• Rice has lost five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
• Rice has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog at neutral venues.
• Rice has won the first quarter in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents.
• Rice has lost the first half in each of its last three games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
• Twelve of Rice’s last 13 games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Rice has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
• Texas State rank 17th among FBS teams for points per game this season (36.0).

ANDREW’S FREE TEXAS STATE VS RICE PREDICTION 

I’ll probably stay with Texas State. This should be an interesting matchup though, and if both teams are on point it’ll be a high-scoring finish. The Bobcats managed 479 total yards (368 passing) in their last win over South Alabama, but they also gave up 476 yards (399 passing) and 26 first downs on the other side in a high-octane game. Texas State has scored 31 or more points in three of the last four games while giving up 31 or more in each of the last three. 

As for Rice, they’ve scored 24 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. The Owls have given up some healthy totals on the other side themselves, however: 30 or more in three of the last five. I like this one to be a high-flying matchup the whole way, and a fun one to watch. I’m leaning toward Texas State cover-wise but it’s close.