
SMU vs Charlotte Prediction Football Picks 9-30-23
SMU Mustangs (2-2) vs Charlotte 49ers (1-3)
2023-09-30 19:30:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: SMU Mustangs -23.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Charlotte 49ers and the SMU Mustangs meet in week 5 college football action from Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday night.
49ers Lose 3rd Straight
The Charlotte 49ers come into this one as losers of 3 games in a row after a 22-7 defeat at the hands of Florida last time out, dropping to 1-3 on the year as a result. Jalon Jones has thrown for 363 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 61.4% passing while also leading the 49ers in rushing with 262 yards and 3 touchdowns while Trexler Ivey has thrown for 352 yards, a touchdown and an INT on 66.7% passing. Jack Hestera has a team-high 15 receptions for 202 receiving yards while another three 49ers have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Prince Bemah has a team-high 28 total tackles while Eyabi Okie-Anoma has a pair of sacks and Kameron Howard has a pair of interceptions this season. Charlotte’s defense as a unit has 9 sacks and 3 interceptions this season.
Charlotte 49ers Team Facts
Charlotte has lost 15 of its last 16 road games in September.
The road team has covered the spread in each of Charlotte’s last four games.
Charlotte has won the first half in each of its last three road games against conference opponents.
Seven of Charlotte’s last eight September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
SMU Falls Back To .500
The SMU Mustangs fell back to .500 on the year, sitting at 2-2 on the year after a 34-17 loss to TCU on the road last time out. Preston Stone has thrown for 1,056 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 INTs on 58.4% passing while Jaylan Knighton leads the Mustangs with 182 rushing yards. LJ Johnson Jr. has 153 rushing yards and Camar Wheaton has 148 rushing yards with a pair of touchdowns. Jordan Hudson has a team-high 159 receiving yards with 2 touchdowns and Jordan Kerley has 153 receiving yards with 2 TDs as well. Another four Mustangs have 100+ receiving yards, including Jake Bailey who has a team-high 14 receptions. On defense, Kobe Wilson and Ahmad Walker each have 20 total tackles while Elijah Roberts has a team-high 3 sacks. As a unit, SMU’s defense has 13 sacks so far this season.
SMU Mustangs Team Facts
SMU has won each of its last 20 September games as a favorite.
SMU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
SMU has won the first quarter in 13 of its last 17 home games against conference opponents.
SMU has won the first half in 11 of its last 14 home games against conference opponents.
Five of SMU’s last six games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
SMU ranked T4th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.692).
SMU ranked 12th among FBS teams for points per game last season (37.2).
Charlotte was one of only 17 FBS teams with a better road winning percentage (.333) than home winning percentage (.167) last season (min. 8 games).
Chris’ Pick
I’m leaning towards Charlotte and the points. Don’t get me wrong, I think SMU wins this game and I was initially leaning towards SMU if this line would’ve been shorter, but I just don’t know if SMU can cover this number. Charlotte’s been competitive for the most part and haven’t had their doors blown off this season, losing by 18 against a good Maryland team and by 16 against a Georgia State team that’s unbeaten through week 4. I think this could be a 38-17 kind of game, so I’ll take a shot at Charlotte and the points in a game I’m not rushing to bet.