Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction 11-9-24 College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, November 9th at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 11 matchup. 

Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview

The Tennessee Volunteers are 7-1 (4-1) this season after they defeated Kentucky by a score of 28-18 in their last game. Tennessee trailed 10-7 at halftime, but they were able to score three touchdowns in the second half for the win. The Volunteers outgained Kentucky by a total of 477-360, won the turnover battle 3-1, and went 7-14 on third down in the game. Nico Iamaleava threw for 292 yards and one touchdown, while Dylan Sampson rushed for 142 yards and two scores. 

Prior to that game, the Volunteers defeated Alabama by a score of 24-17 and Florida by a score of 23-17 in overtime. The Tennessee offense has scored 38.1 points per game with 239.5 passing yards and 234.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 12.4 points per game this season. Nico Iamaleava has completed 65.4% of his passes for 1,705 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Dylan Sampson has rushed for 980 yards and 19 scores this year. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 2-7 (0-5) this year after they defeated UMass by a score of 45-20 in their last game. Mississippi State trailed 10-0 after the first quarter, but they scored the next 35 points to pull away for the win. The Bulldogs outgained UMass by a total of 465-335, won the turnover battle 1-0 and went 5-9 on third down in the game. Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for 222 yards and one touchdown, while Johnnie Daniels rushed for 92 yards and one score. 

Prior to that win, the Bulldogs lost seven games in a row, with six of them coming by double digits. The Mississippi State offense has scored 29.8 points per game with 255.2 passing yards and 143.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 34.6 points per game this season. Michael Van Buren Jr. has completed 57.1% of his passes for 1,323 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Davon Booth has rushed for 472 yards and three scores. 

Why Mississippi State will cover

• The team ranked 7th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight road games in November.
• Tennessee has lost the first half in each of its last four games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Tennessee’s last six November home games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Mississippi State’s last four games has gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (56.0).
• Tennessee ranks 1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (21.4).
• Mississippi State ranks 131st among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (216).
• Mississippi State ranks 129th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (13.1).

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction 

Mississippi State comes into this matchup looking for their first conference win of the season, but they are coming off of a win against UMass last week. The Bulldogs also kept it close with Georgia and Texas A&M in October, so they aren’t as bad as their record would suggest. Tennessee is 7-1 coming into this game, but they may be one of the least impressive seven-win teams in the country. The Volunteers have won their four conference games by margins of 10, 7, 6, and 10, and they have scored 28 points or fewer in all five of their SEC games this year. Give me Mississippi State and the points here.