South Alabama Jaguars (4-7) vs. Texas State Bobcats (5-6)
November 29, 2025 3:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas State Bobcats -9; Over/Under: 63.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The South Alabama Jaguars and the Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in college football action from UFCU Stadium. Here’s a Texas State vs South Alabama prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Texas State vs South Alabama pick.
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
The Jaguars were able to win their opener this year over Morgan State, but then came a long string of losses. Those defeats came courtesy of Tulane, Auburn, Coastal Carolina, North Texas, Troy and Arkansas State in succession. South Alabama would then get a win over Georgia State before another loss to Louisiana and a win over Louisiana-Monroe. Through 10 games the Jaguars were only able to scratch out a 3-7 record.
On Saturday versus Southern Miss, the Jaguars were looking good on a 35-14 advantage heading into the final quarter. South Alabama was outscored 21-7 the rest of the way but managed to hang on for the win 42-35. QB Bishop Davenport had 151 yards on 20-of-23 passing and also scored two rush TDs. Kentrel Bullock was tops in rushing on 187 yards and three scores off 23 carries and Jeremy Scott had four catches for 41 yards in the win.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Over on the Bobcats’ side, they were able to win three of their first four games this year but it’s been a struggle since then. Texas State beat Eastern Michigan, UTSA and Nicholls in that time (with a loss to Arizona State). Losses to Arkansas State, Troy, Marshall, James Madison and Louisiana came in the next five outings, though. On November 15 the Bobcats would get back into the win column with a blowout versus Southern Miss.
Last weekend versus LA-Monroe, the Bobcats held a modest 3-0 lead going into the third quarter. Texas State posted a 28-14 run from there however, and powered out the win 31-14 in the end. QB Brad Jackson logged a 25-of-32 line for 201 yards, two scores and a pick while also leading the rush on 88 yards and two more scores off 15 carries. Beau Sparks added 10 receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown as the lead receiver.
South Alabama Jaguars @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Week 14
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 14, Lincoln Pare ranks 1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (97.0%) this season.
South Alabama Jaguars Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 14, Kentrel Bullock ranks T9th amongst FBS players for touchdowns (14) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
- Texas State ranks T7th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.4).
- South Alabama ranks 134th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (94.7).
- South Alabama ranks 129th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (70.8).
Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction
I’ll take a stab on South Alabama but you could call this one either way. The Jags had a wild fourth quarter in their tense win over Southern Miss last weekend but controlled things most of the way. South Alabama finished with 449 yards, 263 rush yards, 5.8 yards per play and 26 first downs with no turnovers. The Jaguars did give up 400 pass yards on the other side but stood tall on third downs with a 4-of-13 success rate. That gives South Alabama a 3-1 record over the last four outings.
As for Texas State, they posted 422 yards with 221 rush yards and 26 first downs in their win over LA-Monroe. The defense gave up 300 yards on the other side with 19 first downs and 5-of-13 on third-down tries. Following a five-game losing streak the Bobcats have now won consecutive games. All things considered this should be a pretty good matchup.
