Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-3) vs. Texas Longhorns (2-1)
September 20, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas Longhorns -39.5; Over/Under: 51.5
(Get latest betting odds)
Texas and Sam Houston State meet Saturday in Week 4 college football action from Darryl K Royal-Texas Stadium. Here’s a Texas vs Sam Houston State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Texas Longhorns vs Sam Houston State Bearkats pick.
Sam Houston State is Struggling
Sam Houston State has gotten out to a terrible start to the season and they have lost all three games. Not only have they lost three straight games, none of them have been all that close. Two games ago against UNLV, Sam Houston State scored 21 points while the defense gave up 38 points. In the last game against Hawaii, Sam Houston State scored 20 points, but the defense gave up 27 points, and that was another blowout defeat. Mabrey Mettauer and Ladyn Locke both played under center, and both had some major issues. Elijah Green was the top wide receiver, catching three passes for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Sam Houston State is averaging 21.67 points while their defense is giving up 38.67 points per game. The offense is ranked 100th while the defense is ranked 130th. The top rusher has been their quarterback, Hunter Watson, and he has put up 108 yards and two touchdowns.
Why Sam Houston State Will Beat Texas
- Sam Houston State has won each of its last three games against teams from Texas.
- The team ranked 8th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
- Sam Houston State has covered the spread in three of its last four games in September.
Does Texas Have a Quarterback Issue?
Texas still has high expectations this season, but they could be in some trouble if they don’t get better play out of Arch Manning. Texas sits with a 2-1 record but the final scores of the wins might not tell the whole story. In the last game, Texas faced off against UTEP, and they were able to secure the 27-10 victory. Manning completed 11 of his 25 passes for 114 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He doesn’t 100 percent look comfortable under center and they need him to be a whole lot better.
He has also been the top rusher and he has finished with 23 carries for 112 yards and three touchdowns. That is a problem that he is the top rusher, and more balanced attack needs to happen. South Carolina on the season is averaging 23 points while their defense is giving up 17.33 points per game. The offense is ranked 96th while the defense is ranked 43rd. This game isn’t about winning, this should be an easy game, it’s all about how good Arch Manning looks.
Why Texas Will Beat Sam Houston State
- Texas has won each of its last 18 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Sam Houston State has lost each of its last three road games.
- Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven road games.
- Texas has covered the spread in five of its last six home games against opponents from the Conference USA.
Texas vs Sam Houston State Prediction
Texas is cleary the better team, but they have shown nothing out of their quarterback play that makes me believe that they have the ability to win this game by this many points. To be frank, I don’t think Arch Manning is as good as people have made him out to be, and he’s not going to be elite here. Is he going to win this game? Well of course, the Longhorns are the better team, but this is going to be a whole lot closer than Vegas thinks. Sam Houston State will score at least 20 points, and that will be enough for them to keep this game close. Back Sam Houston State against the spread.
