The West Virginia Mountaineers (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) at UCF Knights (3-4, 0-4 Big 12): 

West Virginia visits the home of Mickey on Saturday when visiting Orlando to play the UCF Knights in a Big 12 showdown. In their most recent games, West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State 48-34 and UCF lost narrowly to Oklahoma 31-29. The Mountaineers are currently 6th in the Big 12, and the Knights are 13th. West Virginia’s defense was burned for 491 yards and lost even though the Mountaineers forced three turnovers by the Cowboys. UCF gave up 442 yards of offense in their loss to Oklahoma.

Mountaineers Marching On: Taking a Peak at West Virginia’s Game Plan.

The West Virginia offense has been up and down this season, as the Mountaineers currently rank 103rd in total offense with 394 yards per game. The Mountaineers are ranked 165th in passing offense led by quarterback Garrett Greene who has thrown for 1,184 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. With CJ Donaldson Jr. leading in yards rushed with 453 and six touchdowns, the Mountaineers’ rushing game ranks 47th in the country with an average of 191.4 yards per game. Devin Carter is the leading receiver with 311 yards and one TD. West Virginia’s success will depend on their power to take advantage of their running game against UCF’s vulnerable defense and the run.

West Virginia could do better defensively. West Virginia’s pass defense is allowing 223.7 yards per game, while its defense against the run is allowing an average of 143.1 yards per game and the Mountaineers are allowing an average of 365.9 total yards per game. West Virginia’s defense has intercepted six passes and made 14 quarterback sacks. The defensive leader is Lee Kpodba at linebacker who has 51 tackles. 

West Virginia Mountaineers Team Facts

• The underdog has won each of West Virginia’s last four games.
• West Virginia has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine October road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• West Virginia has lost the first half in each of its last six road games against conference opponents.
• Each of West Virginia’s last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Knights in Shining Armor? Redemption: The UCF Knights’ Path to CP.

UCF has an explosive offensive attack that ranks 8th nationally with 499.6 total yards per game. The Knights’ are averaging a very strong 232.4 yards per game which ranks 12th in the country. RJ Harvey paces the team rushing with 612 yards and 6 touchdowns. Through the air, quarterback Timmy McClain has been efficient throwing for 1008 yards and 9 touchdowns with just two interceptions. McClain’s favorite target is Javon Baker who has caught 26 points for 551 yards with four touchdowns. 

However, UCF’s defense has been questionable at best. The Knights are giving up 395 total yards per game. UCF is giving up an average of 196.3 yards per game on the ground and another 198.3 yards per game through the air. The UCF strength is its passing defense that is ranked 34th compared to against the run, which ranks 123rd. The defensive line is led by Tre’Mon Morris-Brash who has six quarterback sacks, while Corey Thornton has made a team best two interceptions. 

UCF Knights Team Facts

• UCF has won each of its last six home games in October.
• UCF has covered the spread in each of its last four home games in October.
• UCF has won the first quarter in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
• UCF has won the first half in six of its last eight home games against conference opponents.
• Each of UCF’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• UCF rank T28th among FBS teams for points per game this season (34.1).

David’s Pick: UCF Knights -4.5

Both UCF and West Virginia have had their issues finishing games this season. Over the last two weeks, West Virginia has given up 48 points alone in just the final quarter, while UCF led 23-17 entering the fourth quarter versus Oklahoma and was leading by 25 points during the final stanza against Baylor but ended up losing both games. However, UCF returns home and catches the Mountaineers at a bad time. That is why I am taking the UCF Knights to win and cover the spread at the same time. Although UCF has had a disappointing season to date, a win over West Virginia would jump start their second half of the season that will include games against Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Houston and Oklahoma State that will give the Knights a fighting opportunity to qualify for a bowl game. Take the Knights to both win and cover on Saturday in Orlando against a reeling Mountaineers side.