USC vs Michigan State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/20/25

The Michigan State Spartans and USC Trojans meet Saturday in college football action at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Here’s a USC vs Michigan State Prediction. This article will include a USC vs Michigan State Pick.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans beat Boston College and Youngstown State and plays Nebraska next. The Michigan State Spartans have won 4 of their last 5 games. Aidan Chiles is completing 71.6 percent of his passes for 656 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly have combined for 378 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Michael Masunas has 6 receptions.

The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging 168 yards per contest, and Makhi Frazier leads the way with 206 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 23.3 points and 337.7 yards per game. Jordan Hall leads the Michigan State Spartans with 27 tackles, Anelu Lafaele has 2 sacks and Armorion Smith has 1 interception.

USC Trojans Betting Preview

The USC Trojans beat Purdue and Georgia Southern, and they play Illinois next. The USC Trojans have won 7 of their last 9 games. Jayden Maiava is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 989 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane have combined for 550 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Lake McRee has 7 receptions.

The USC Trojans ground game is averaging 240 yards per contest, and Waymond Jordan leads the way with 286 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, USC is allowing 16.7 points and 319.3 yards per game. Eric Gentry leads the USC Trojans with 21 tackles, Kameryn Fountain has 2.5 sacks and Bishop Fitzgerald has 3 interceptions.

Michigan State Spartans @ USC Trojans Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last 12 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games.
• USC has covered the spread in each of its last seven games as a favorite in California.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in four of its last five games against conference opponents.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won five of its last seven road openers as an underdog.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of Michigan State’s last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan State’s last eight road games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of USC’s last four games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

USC Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Bishop Fitzgerald ranks T1st amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Michael Masunas ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• USC ranks 1st among FBS teams for yards per game this season (604.0).
• USC ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
• Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (1).
• Michigan State has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (1).

USC vs Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State is off to a fine start and brings that physicality in the trenches, but Sparty is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog of 14 or more points. USC also has an explosive passing attack, and Michigan State is 117th in pass defense.

USC has covered 5 of its last 6 games as a favorite of 14 or more points, and that includes 3 wins this season by an average of 38.3 points. I’m not sure Michigan State will be able to slow down this USC passing attack or has the horses to respond. I’ll lay the points with the Trojans on Saturday night.