UNLV Rebels (4-1) vs. Utah State Aggies (1-4)
October 11, 2024 9:00 pm EDT
The Line: Utah State Aggies +18.5 / UNLV Rebels -18.5; Over/Under: +60.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The UNLV Rebels and the Utah State Aggies meet Friday in college football action from Maverik Stadium. Here’s a Utah State vs UNLV prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Utah State vs UNLV pick.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
The Rebels kicked off their season with a couple of sizable wins versus Houston 27-7 and Utah Tech 72-14. UNLV was able to eke out a victory over Kansas 23-20 to keep it going, then drilled Fresno State 59-14 in game four to stay perfect on the year.
Last Friday versus Syracuse, UNLV came back from an early 14-0 deficit but eventually fell in overtime 44-41 during a tough result. QB Hajj-Malik Williams finished with 227 yards, three scores, and a pick (with a rush TD). Ricky White caught 10 balls for 135 yards and a score.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
Over on the Aggies’ side, they powered out a 36-14 win over Robert Morris in their opener. After a pair of tough matchups against USC (a 48-0 loss) and Utah (a 38-21 loss), Utah State continued their skid with a 45-29 loss to Temple in game four.
In the Boise State game, the Aggies were drilled 49-17 in the first half and ended up falling 62-30. QB Spencer Petras logged 372 yards with three touchdowns, and Rahsul Faison carried 26 times for 109 yards and a TD. Jalen Royals led the receivers on 211 yards and two TDs off nine grabs.
Why the Utah State Aggies will win
- UNLV has lost seven of its last eight road games in October.
- Utah State has won three of its last four October games as a home underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Utah State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UNLV has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- UNLV has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.
Why the UNLV Rebels will win
- Utah State has lost each of its last four games.
- UNLV has won each of its last four road games.
- UNLV has covered the spread in each of its last eight road games.
- Utah State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games.
- UNLV has won the first half in four of its last five road games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of UNLV’s last four games as a favorite has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Utah State’s last four October home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Utah State ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (19.4).
- Utah State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (24.8).
- UNLV ranks 6th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (13.2).
- UNLV ranks T8th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (21.2).
Utah State vs UNLV Prediction
I’ll probably stay with UNLV. The Rebels posted 354 total yards (227 passing) and 7.1 yards per play during their close OT loss to Syracuse. The defense had trouble getting off the field though, as the Orange accumulated 39:38 in time of possession, 492 yards (355 passing), 34 first downs, and 11-of-18 on third-down tries. The nine UNLV penalties for 108 yards didn’t help either.
As for Utah State, they had a nice offensive outing (507 total yards) in their matchup with Boise State. The Aggies also gave up 599 yards (296 rushing), 8.1 yards per play, and 27 first downs on the other side, though. That makes 38 or more points surrendered in four straight games. UNLV should have ample opportunities here.
