Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction 9/27/25 College Football Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction for this College Football Week 5 game on Saturday, September 27^th at the FirstBank Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Vanderbilt Preview

Vanderbilt has a 4-0 record this season and are sitting on the 5th place of the SEC. They are 4-0 ATS, 2-2 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 2-0 away record. The Commodores are coming off a 70-21 home victory over Georgia State and are playing Utah State, Alabama and LSU next.

Offensively, the Commodores average 47.5 points per game, which ranks 8th in the nation. Defensively, they allow 12.8 points per game, which is 19th. Vanderbilt averages 482.3 total yards per game, with 223.8 rushing yards and 258.5 passing yards per game. They allow 250.3 total yards per game, with 70.0 rushing and 180.3 passing yards per game.

Diego Pavia leads the Commodores with 890 passing yards and 73.9% completed passes. Diego Pavia leads the team in rushing yards, with 215, while Tre Richardson has a team-high 16 caught passes for 233 receiving yards, and has one touchdown.

Defensively, CJ Heard has a team-high 21 total tackles, 17 of them solo. Miles Capers leads the Commodores in sacks, with 2.5, while Bryan Longwell has one interception.

Utah State Preview

Utah State has a 3-1 record this season and are sitting on the 2nd place of the Mountain West. They are 4-0 ATS, 2-2 in Over/Under and have a 3-0 home record and 0-1 away record. The Aggies are coming off a 48-7 home victory over McNeese State and are playing Vanderbilt, Hawaii and San Jose State next.

Offensively, the Aggies average 36.8 points per game, which ranks 42nd in the nation. Defensively, they allow 24.2 points per game, which is 78th. Utah State averages 427.5 total yards per game, with 181.3 rushing yards and 246.3 passing yards per game. They allow 380.5 total yards per game, with 178.3 rushing and 202.3 passing yards per game.

Bryson Barnes leads the Aggies with 982 passing yards and 65.4% completed passes. Miles Davis leads the team in rushing yards, with 310, while Braden Pegan has a team-high 17 caught passes for 303 receiving yards, and has three touchdowns.

Defensively, John Miller has a team-high 36 total tackles, 11 of them solo. John Miller leads the Aggies in sacks, with four, while Noah Avinger has two interceptions.

Utah State Aggies @ Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win

• The home team has won each of Utah State’s last eight games.
• Utah State has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked teams.
• The home team has covered the spread in eight of Utah State’s last nine games.
• Utah State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight road games.
• Vanderbilt has won the first quarter in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents at FirstBank Stadium.
• Vanderbilt has won the first half in each of its last seven games against non-conference opponents at FirstBank Stadium.

Why the Utah State Aggies will win

• Utah State has won three of its last four games.
• Utah State has covered the spread in each of its last four games.
• Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 14 home games in September.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Vanderbilt’s last 11 September games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Utah State’s last nine games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

Vanderbilt Commodores Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Sedrick Alexander is the only player in the FBS to record 3+ rushing and 3+ receiving TDs this season.

Utah State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Miles Davis ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Vanderbilt ranks 3rd among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (13.8).
• Vanderbilt ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+11.5).
• Utah State has won the third quarter in each of its last seven games – longest active streak in the FBS.
• Utah State ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).

Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction

In this Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Vanderbilt is coming as -22.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 59.5 points. Both teams have been excellent this season with Vanderbilt being undefeated. They have both covered the spread in all of their four games played, but the Commodores are better both offensively, scoring 10.7 points more, and defensively, allowing 11.4 points less. Vanderbilt has been winning by an average of 34.7 points per game this season, having won both home games by 42 and 49 points. I expect another dominating performance by the Commodores at home, so take Vanderbilt and lay the -22.5 points in this one.