Week 1: Baylor vs Albany-NY 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Baylor Bears and Albany Great Danes square off Saturday in week 1 college football action from McLane Stadium.

The Albany Great Danes can only go up after a disappointing 2-9 record in 2021, including a 1-7 mark in CAA conference play to finish in the basement of the CAA standings with the worst record under head coach Greg Gattuso, just two years after their first FCS playoff win in program history. Joey Carino is likely the front-runner to get the starting QB job for Albany, but the Great Danes have a pair of former FBS QBs in Matt Valecce from Colorado State and Reese Poggenbarger from Old Dominion to compete for the job. The Great Danes have to try to figure out how to replace all-CAA running back Karl Mofor, who accounted for half of Albany’s total touchdowns last season. Jose Lopez-Quinones and Lavarey Banton are the guys staying in house to compete while Todd Sibley transfers in from Pitt and Conrad Perry comes over from Sacred Heart to fight for reps as well. Roy Alexander is the top dog in Albany’s receiving group with 37 grabs for 560 yards and 3 scores. On defense, Jackson Ambush is back after logging 89 total tackles last season, finishing top-10 in the CAA in tackles and was one of five freshmen to make an all-CAA team.

The Baylor Bears will look to keep the momentum going after one of the best seasons in program history, finishing at 12-2 overall including a 7-2 mark in Big Ten conference play. The Bears took down Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game by a score of 21-16 and upended Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl by a final score of 21-7. The Bears will have a new face under center with Gerry Bohanon gone to USF, but that’s because Blake Shapen beat out Bohanon for the starting gig. The Bears lost Trestan Ebner to the NFL, and Abram Smith is a New Orleans Saint as well, but Craig Williams is a capable option that can shoulder the load and take over in Baylor’s backfield. The receiving group will be a rebuild after losing their top three options to the transfer portal or the NFL, but with time the Bears will be alright moving the ball through the air. On defense, there will be new faces as well, but head coach Dave Aranda is up to the task. Baylor is expected to have one of the Big 12’s best front sevens, with Siaki Ika up front and Dillon Doyle at linebacker, who finished second on the Bears in tackling last season.

Albany is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 games in September. Baylor is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the over is 25-12 in their last 37 non-conference games.

I get the case to be made for either side here as Baylor is the better team, but six touchdowns is a ton to lay with any team, let alone a Baylor team that’s still retooling at some key positions in the lineup. That being said, I like the over here, as this total is just too low. I expect the Bears to score in the high-30s to low-40s and all we would really need is one score from Albany to get us into the good here. I’m not loving this game, but it’s over or pass for me here.