Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions 7/24/2021

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves look for a win after splitting their last six games. The Phillies look for a win after splitting their last eight games.

The Atlanta Braves have scored 10 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in four of their last seven games. The Braves have split their last four games when scoring four or more runs. Freddie Freeman leads the Braves with 103 hits and 56 RBI while Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have combined for 188 hits and 110 RBI. Drew Smyly gets the ball, and he is 7-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. Smyly is 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA and four strikeouts in his career against the Phillies.

The Philadelphia Phillies have scored 12 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in six of their last eight games. The Phillies have won four of their last six games when scoring four or more runs. Jean Segura leads the Phillies with 84 hits and 32 RBI while Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper have combined for 159 hits and 93 RBI. Vince Velasquez gets the ball, and he is 3-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season. Velasquez is 1-6 with a 4.57 ERA and 78 strikeouts in his career against the Braves.

The Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 6-1 in their last 7 Saturday games. The over is 6-2 in Braves last 8 overall. The over is 12-2 in Phillies last 14 overall. The Braves are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Philadelphia.

Both of these teams are hit or miss, but we’re getting even money to fade Vince Velasquez on the mound. Velasquez has been hittable all year, and he’s allowed 16 hits and 13 runs in his last 13.1 innings. Drew Smyly has allowed six runs in his last 16.1 innings. I’ll gladly back the Braves and the better pitcher for the more favorable price.