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MLB Prop Bets: Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals – July 4, 2022

MLB Prop Bets: Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals - July 4, 2022
2022-07-04 11:05:00 EDT

The Miami Marlins (37-40) face the Washington Nationals (29-52) at Nationals Park on Monday at 11:05am (ET). Let’s take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Braxton Garrett is the probable pitcher for the Marlins, while Patrick Corbin is the probable pitcher for the Nationals. The Marlins opened as favorites but this matchup has since become a pick’em, with both the Marlins and Nationals at -110 to win. The total runs line is set at 9.0, with OVER at -125 and UNDER at +105.

  • The Marlins (+140) have a 39-38 Run Line record this season, while the Nationals (-165) hold a record of 33-48.
  • The Marlins have a 38-37-2 O/U record this season (meaning 38 games have gone over the total runs line, 37 have gone under and two have resulted in a push). The Nationals have a 40-38-3 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Marlins are averaging 4.4 runs per game this season (14th in the league). Comparatively, the Nationals are averaging only 4.0 (25th).
  • In the field, the Marlins are allowing 4.3 runs per game this season (16th in the league), while the Nationals are allowing an average of 5.5 runs (29th).

Let’s take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages this season, the Marlins are at .244 (ranking 13th in the Major Leagues), while the Nationals are batting .251 (9th).

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs this season, the Nationals have hit 64 (25th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Marlins have managed 85 (15th).

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Marlins have recorded 324 RBIs to rank T15th in the MLB this season. Comparatively, the Nationals have recorded 311 RBIs to rank 21st.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The Nationals have an earned run average of 5.13 this season (29th in the Majors), while the Marlins have an ERA of 3.90 (14th).

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Marlins have recorded 664 this season, ranking 17th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank 23rd for total strikeouts, recording 621.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents are batting an average of .267 against the Nationals this season (29th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Marlins’ opponents are at .237 (13th).

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2022.
  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
  • Marlins 10-23-44 6-10-19 4-13-25 6-15-33 4-8-11 0-0-0 2-1-7
  • Nationals 23-20-38 11-10-23 12-10-15 17-11-20 6-9-18 0-0-0 2-2-6

Lead After Three Innings

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2022.
  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
  • Marlins 26-33-18 12-14-9 14-19-9 18-25-11 8-8-7 0-0-0 4-3-3
  • Nationals 26-39-16 11-23-10 15-16-6 19-22-7 7-17-9 0-0-0 3-6-1

NRFI/YRFI

  • The NRFI is 40-37 in Marlins games this season. The Nationals have a 36-45 NRFI record.

Last Time They Met

The Marlins recorded a 7-4 extra innings victory over the Nationals at Nationals Park yesterday. Josh Bell was unstoppable in that matchup, hitting a home run, a double and recording an RBI. The Marlins have now won six straight against the Nationals.


Robert Steele

I'm not a fan of being called a "quants" (quantitative analyst) or "math wizard" but it's the truth. I'm a numbers guy. I love to crunch the data, make sense of it, and turn it into a winning bet.

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