Astros vs Mets Prediction 3/27/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, March 27th, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros went 88-73 last season, and they finished first in the AL West, 3.5 games in front of the Seattle Mariners. Houston played Detroit in the Wild Card round, where they lost 2-0 by scores of 3-1 and 5-2. The Astros finished the regular season by winning 11 of their last 16 games, which locked up the division, but they really struggled to hit the ball against the Detroit pitching staff in the playoffs. In Spring Training, Houston went 16-12 in the Grapefruit League, which was second best, and they won seven of their last ten games. 

Last season, the Houston pitching staff had a 3.74 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 740 runs with a .262 batting average and a .322 on-base percentage. Houston was top 11 in runs scored per game, and they were sixth in team ERA, so it was a very solid season. The Astros were led by Yordan Alvarez, who hit .308 with 35 home runs and 86 RBIs last year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who was 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP last season. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets were 89-73 last year, and they finished tied with the Braves for second in the NL East, six games behind the Phillies. New York was able to grab the final wild card spot in the NL, as they had the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. The Mets defeated the Brewers in the NL Wild Card round by two games to one and followed that up by beating the Phillies in four games in the NLDS. New York did lose to the Dodgers in six games, but they put up a very solid battle. In Spring Training, the Mets went 13-13, which was seventh in the Grapefruit League, and they went 4-0-2 in their last six games. 

Last year, the New York pitching staff had a 3.96 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while their offense scored 768 runs with a .246 batting average and a .319 on-base percentage. New York had a very solid lineup in 2024 and finished sixth in home runs. The Mets were led by Pete Alonso, who hit .240 with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs on the year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who went 3-5 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 189.0 pitches last season. Holmes is transitioning from a relief role to a starter, so it will be interesting to see how he handles that. 

Why the Astros will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost 10 of their last 11 games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have won each of their last six Thursday home games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as favorites against the Mets.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home openers.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against NL East opponents.

Why the Mets will beat the Astros

• The Mets have won each of their last seven road openers as underdogs.
• The Astros have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Astros’ last eight games.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven road openers.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last nine games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Astros’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last nine day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine day games against American League opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against the Mets.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Astros’ last seven games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded a Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Astros as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Framber Valdez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Astros as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Jake Meyers has recorded a Double in each of the Astros’ last three games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Jake Meyers has scored at least one run in seven of the Astros’ last eight games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jose Siri has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL West opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded an RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Astros.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last nine games against AL West opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in day games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 10 games as underdogs against AL opponents.

Astros vs Mets Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this season looking to get back into the playoffs, and both are expected to be very good once again, so this is a great series to start the season with. This New York offense was very good in 2024, and they should be even better this season. Houston is starting Valdez, who has always been a bit inconsistent, while I am not sure how Holmes will handle his first start against a very good lineup. Take the over in this game.