Astros vs Padres Prediction 4/20/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, April 20th at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 10-10 this season and they have won the first two games in this series by scores of 6-4 and 3-2. In their game two win, the Astros trailed 2-0 in the fifth inning, but they scored the last three runs in the game for the win. The Astros recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Walker, who went 1-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Houston started Wesneski, who allowed six hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Hader picked up the save in the ninth. 

Prior to this series, the Astros lost two out of three against the Cardinals, but did win two out of three against the Angels before that. Houston has won three of their last four games and they are currently third in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .214 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 75 runs with a .223 batting average and a .303 on base percentage this season. Isaac Paredes has led Houston with three home runs and 11 RBIs, while Yordan Alvarez has added two home runs, 10 RBIs, and one stolen base this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 22.0 innings pitched this season. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 15-6 this year after they lost game two in this series by a score of 3-2 on Saturday. San Diego jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the third inning and they added another in the fifth, before the pitching staff had some issues with walks and allowed three runs. The Padres recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Tatis Jr., who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. San Diego started King, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Estrada allowed two hits and one earned run over 1.1 innings for the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Padres won two out of three against the Cubs and swept the Rockies in three games. San Diego has lost three of their last four games and they are currently first in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 2.77 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and a .203 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 94 runs with a .275 batting average and a .344 on base percentage this season. Fernando Tatis has led San Diego with seven home runs and 15 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added two home runs and 10 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Dylan Cease, who is 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 20.1 innings pitched this year.

Why the Astros will beat the Padres

• The home team has won seven of the Padres’ last eight games.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four games at Daikin Park.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last eight games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against AL West opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Daikin Park.

Why the Padres will beat the Astros

• The Astros have lost each of their last eight games as favorites following a win.
• The Padres have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last six games as favorites against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last nine night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last five games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last nine games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
• Jeremy Pena has scored a run in each of the Astros’ last four games as favorites against the Padres.
• Framber Valdez has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Isaac Paredes has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four games as home favorites.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Astros’ last five games against opponents that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in 16 of his last 17 appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Manny Machado has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight games.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Padres’ last four games against the Astros.
• Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL opponents.
• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres against AL opponents.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in 10 of his last 12 appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (18).
• The Astros rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.332).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.279).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (131).

Astros vs Padres Prediction 

Houston was finally able to win back to back games for the first time this season on Saturday and they will go for the sweep here. The Astros are 6-5 at home this year, while the Padres are just 3-5 on the road. Houston is starting Valdez, who has allowed five earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. San Diego is going with Cease, who has pitched well for the most part, but did allow nine earned runs two starts ago. I think we are going to see some offense in this game and I don’t trust Valdez at all, so give me the over here.