Astros vs Reds Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 9th at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 18-18 this year after they lost two out of three against Milwaukee by scores of 1-5, 3-4, and 9-1. In their game three win, Houston had their lead cut to 3-1 in the fifth inning, but they added four insurance runs for the win. The Astros recorded eight hits in the game, and they were led by Pena, who went 2-5 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. Houston started Valdez, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Abreu and Hader closed it down. 

Prior to that series, the Astros lost two out of three against the White Sox, but did win two out of three against the Tigers before that. Houston has lost five of their last seven games, and they are currently third in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.36 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a .216 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 145 runs with a .241 batting average and a .313 on-base percentage this season. Jeremy Pena has led Houston with five home runs and 16 RBIs, while Isaac Paredes has added four home runs and 15 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Hunter Brown, who is 5-1 with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 43.0 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 19-20 this season after they lost three out of four against the Braves by scores of 0-4, 1-2, 4-3, and 4-5. In their game four loss, Cincinnati led 4-2 in the ninth inning, but they couldn’t hold onto the lead and lost in extra innings. The Reds recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Hinds, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Cincinnati started Lodolo, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Ashcraft blew the save and Rogers picked up the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Nationals and split four games with the Cardinals. Cincinnati has lost five of its last six games, and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and a .213 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 185 runs with a .242 batting average and a .322 on-base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with five home runs and 25 RBIs, while Austin Hays has added five home runs and 13 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Martinez, who is 1-3 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 38.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Astros will beat the Reds

• The Reds have lost five of their last six games.
• The Astros have won five of their last six games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have covered the run line in five of their last six games at Daikin Park.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against AL West opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against AL West opponents.

Why the Reds will beat the Astros

• The Reds have won each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Astros.
• The Astros have lost each of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Reds and Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six night games.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Reds’ last eight road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven night games against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 16 of the Astros’ last 18 home games against National League opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in four of the Astros’ last five games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Brendan Rodgers has recorded a Double in each of his last four home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances with the Astros as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has scored a run in each of the Astros’ last five games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros’ last 10 games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Brendan Rodgers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Hunter Brown ranks T4th in the league for Wins (5) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances with the Reds as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Austin Hays has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against AL opponents.
• Will Benson has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against AL West opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances after playing the previous day.
• TJ Friedl has scored a run in each of his last five road appearances against AL West opponents.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded an RBI in five of his last six road appearances against the Astros.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank T3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (107).
• The Astros rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (250).
• The Reds rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.213).
• The Reds rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (342).

Astros vs Reds Prediction 

These two teams come into this series with very similar records on the season, and both are coming off a series loss, but Houston will be at home. The Astros are 11-7 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-10 on the road. Cincinnati is starting Martinez, who started the year pretty shaky, but has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Houston is going with Brown, who has been pretty dominant in his first few starts. I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game with these two pitchers on the mound, and I like the under here.