Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 4/25/26 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles meet Saturday in MLB action from Camden Yards. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will start Garrett Crochet here and Crochet is 2-3 with a 7.88 ERA and 30 strikeouts this season. In his career, Crochet is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 26 strikeouts against Baltimore. The Baltimore Orioles will send Trevor Rogers out for the start here and Rogers is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA and 25 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Red Sox, Rogers is 1-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 27 strikeouts.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back from a 10-3 loss at the hands of Baltimore last time out to sit at 9-17 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will head on the road for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Red Sox Drop 6 Of Last 7

Entering Friday, Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 26 hits including 4 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs while Trevor Story has 19 hits with 5 doubles, 2 homers and 17 RBIs and Marcelo Mayer’s added 12 hits with 5 doubles, a home run and 4 RBIs as well. Roman Anthony has 18 hits with 3 doubles, a triple, a home run and 4 RBIs so far this season while Jarren Duran has 15 hits with 5 doubles, a home run and 11 RBIs as well this season. Willson Contreras has added 21 hits with 2 doubles, 4 homers and 12 RBIs of his own on the year.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to build on their win over Boston from Friday’s matchup to sit at 13-13 on the year. After this series, the Orioles will take on the Houston Astros in a series at home.

Orioles Pick Up Back-To-Back Ws

Going into Friday, Taylor Ward has 28 hits with 13 doubles and 11 RBIs while Gunnar Henderson has 20 hits with 4 doubles, 7 home runs and 15 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 20 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 10 RBIs. Adley Rutschman has 12 hits with 6 doubles and 5 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 23 hits with 2 doubles, 5 home runs and 19 RBIs while Dylan Beavers also has 14 hits with 3 doubles, a home run and 7 RBIs.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: April 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 4.08
• Home Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-2

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Orioles have covered the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in each of their last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 road games against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Garrett Crochet      Record this season: 2-3      ERA: 7.88
• Road Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Orioles: 1-1

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last six games as road underdogs against the Orioles following a road loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against the Orioles following a road loss.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Orioles’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last nine Saturday day games against AL East opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Gunnar Henderson has hit a home run in five of his last six appearances with the Orioles as home favorites against the Red Sox.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
• Trevor Rogers has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against the Red Sox.
• Taylor Ward has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last eight games as favorites against AL opponents.
• Taylor Ward ranks T6th in the league in Hits (32) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Wilyer Abreu has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games as underdogs against the Orioles.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as road underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 25th in the league for hits allowed this season (224).
• The Orioles rank T7th in the league for doubles this season (46).
• The Red Sox rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.335).
• The Red Sox rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (15).

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

I’m on the Orioles here. I know Crochet is supposed to be Boston’s staff ace, but he hasn’t pitched like it for much of the year, and I think this is a situation where Baltiimore can get to him as many teams already have this season. Trevor Rogers hasn’t been sharp as of late either, but he was really solid at Camden Yards last season and I think being at home is more of a benefit for him here. Give me the Orioles.